Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 14/11, 14:00

Prediction: Roltek DOB vs NK Tolmin

Team pages: Roltek DOB · NK Tolmin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Roltek DOB2.07

NK Tolmin1.14

1X2

58% 22% 20%

Roltek DOB Draw NK Tolmin

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Roltek DOB 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDWWDW

NK Tolmin 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLLWWW

Head-to-head

Roltek DOB 3–2–1 NK Tolmin (6 last)

NK Tolmin1-1Roltek DOB
Roltek DOB3-1NK Tolmin
NK Tolmin2-2Roltek DOB
NK Tolmin3-2Roltek DOB
Roltek DOB2-0NK Tolmin
NK Tolmin2-3Roltek DOB

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Roltek DOB 1615 · NK Tolmin 1547

	Roltek DOB	Draw	NK Tolmin
Our model	58%	23%	19%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roltek DOB (rating 1615 vs 1547).
H2H favours Roltek DOB: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Roltek DOB	NK Tolmin
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.8	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	86/14/0%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4	3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:47 +23’	1.53	4.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Roltek DOB 3–2–1 NK Tolmin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Tolmin	1-1	Roltek DOB
04/04/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	Roltek DOB	3-1	NK Tolmin
20/09/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Tolmin	2-2	Roltek DOB
07/05/16 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Tolmin	3-2 HT 3-1	Roltek DOB
19/03/16 Slovenia 2. SNL	Roltek DOB	2-0 HT 2-0	NK Tolmin
03/10/15 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Tolmin	2-3 HT 0-0	Roltek DOB

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	13	12	1	0	58	10	37
2	Roltek DOB	13	9	3	1	33	9	30
3	ND Idrija	13	9	1	3	24	14	28
4	NK Tolmin	13	7	3	3	25	15	24
5	NK Litija	13	7	3	3	30	11	24
6	NK Sencur	13	5	4	4	22	23	19
7	NK Skofja Loka	13	5	3	5	20	25	18
8	NK Rudar Trbovlje	13	5	1	7	17	36	16
9	NK Adria Miren	13	4	1	8	26	28	13
10	NK Ziri	13	3	4	6	14	19	13
11	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	13	3	3	7	12	24	12
12	Svoboda Ljubljana	13	2	2	9	11	27	8
13	NK Fama Vipava	13	2	1	10	16	52	7
14	NK Sobec Lesce	13	1	4	8	8	23	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Roltek DOB	NK Tolmin
NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	0-0 D	1-0 W
NK Fama Vipava	5-0 W	1-0 W
NK Adria Miren	4-2 W	4-2 W
NK Litija	1-1 D	2-0 W
NK Sobec Lesce	3-0 W	0-1 L
ND Idrija	3-1 W	0-2 L
Svoboda Ljubljana	4-0 W	2-0 W
MNK Izola	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Roltek DOB (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Roltek DOB

LWWWWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	2-0	1	9	W
31/10	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
28/10	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	5-0	4	1	W
17/10	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-2	–	–	W
10/10	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
03/10	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
26/09	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/09	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	3-0	4-0	6	4	W
13/09	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-1	6	7	W
05/09	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-3	1	7	L

NK Tolmin

WDWLWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
04/11	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	2-0	0	5	W
31/10	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-2	–	–	W
17/10	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
10/10	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/10	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	4-2	3	5	W
05/09	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Roltek DOB vs NK Tolmin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Roltek DOB win (58%). Probabilities: Roltek DOB 58%, draw 22%, NK Tolmin 20%.

How many goals are expected in Roltek DOB vs NK Tolmin?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Roltek DOB 2.07 · NK Tolmin 1.14), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Roltek DOB vs NK Tolmin?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.