Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 18/10, 03:00

Prediction: Cancun FC vs Venados FC

Team pages: Cancun FC · Venados FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Cancun FC2.03

Venados FC1.5

1X2

49% 24% 27%

Cancun FC Draw Venados FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Cancun FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDWLWD

Venados FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWLWWD

Head-to-head

Cancun FC 2–4 Venados FC (6 last)

Venados FC2-0Cancun FC
Cancun FC1-0Venados FC
Cancun FC1-2Venados FC
Venados FC4-0Cancun FC
Venados FC2-0Cancun FC
Cancun FC2-1Venados FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cancun FC 1520 · Venados FC 1527

	Cancun FC	Draw	Venados FC
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Venados FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cancun FC	Venados FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	2.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.6	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.75

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +9’	1.91	3.75	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cancun FC 2–0–4 Venados FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/02/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Cancun FC
14/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Venados FC
16/02/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Venados FC
01/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	4-0 HT 2-0	Cancun FC
04/04/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Cancun FC
20/11/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Venados FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	12	7	3	2	28	17	24
2	Club Atletico La Paz	12	7	2	3	28	15	23
3	Atletico Morelia	12	7	2	3	22	13	23
4	Venados FC	12	6	2	4	27	22	20
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	12	5	3	4	25	21	18
6	Cancun FC	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
7	Piratas	12	5	3	4	18	14	18
8	Alacranes de Durango	12	5	3	4	11	11	18
9	Correcaminos	12	4	4	4	20	20	16
10	Tlaxcala FC	12	4	3	5	23	25	15
11	Tapatio	11	4	2	5	19	19	14
12	Dorados	12	3	4	5	21	23	13
13	Oaxaca	12	4	1	7	10	23	13
14	Jaiba Brava	12	3	3	6	12	19	12
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
16	Tepatitlan FC	11	2	1	8	9	30	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cancun FC	Venados FC
Mineros de Zacatecas	2-2 D	1-5 L
Tapatio	1-0 W	3-2 W
Tlaxcala FC	1-4 L	1-3 L
Dorados	1-1 D	4-2 W
Club Atletico La Paz	1-2 L	2-1 W
Piratas	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Venados FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cancun FC

WWLWDDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-2	6	6	D
04/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
27/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-4	6	6	L
20/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	2	8	W
16/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
12/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
06/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	6-0	4	5	W
28/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
23/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
16/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	4	W

Venados FC

WLWLLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
03/10	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
27/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
19/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	5-0	3	6	W
06/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	3-4	10	9	L
30/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	6	10	L
21/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	4-2	6	2	W
15/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-5	3	6	L
09/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-2	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cancun FC vs Venados FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cancun FC win (49%). Probabilities: Cancun FC 49%, draw 24%, Venados FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Cancun FC vs Venados FC?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Cancun FC 2.03 · Venados FC 1.5), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Cancun FC vs Venados FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.