Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 18/10, 03:00

Prediction: Atletico Morelia vs Jaiba Brava

Team pages: Atletico Morelia · Jaiba Brava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Atletico Morelia1.73

Jaiba Brava0.9

1X2

56% 26% 18%

Atletico Morelia Draw Jaiba Brava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Morelia 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWLDD

Jaiba Brava 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLDLLD

Head-to-head

Atletico Morelia 2–2–2 Jaiba Brava (6 last)

Jaiba Brava1-0Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia0-0Jaiba Brava
Atletico Morelia1-0Jaiba Brava
Jaiba Brava1-1Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia2-1Jaiba Brava
Atletico Morelia0-2Jaiba Brava

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Morelia (rating 1536 vs 1466).
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Morelia	Jaiba Brava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 8.7	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 1	6.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 32.01

Under 31.79

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.52 → 1.52	Pinn 1.52
X	4.31 → 4.31	Pinn 4.31
2	5.39 → 5.39	Pinn 5.39

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:46 +514’	1.52	4.31	5.39

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Morelia 2–2–2 Jaiba Brava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Morelia
09/11/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	0-0 HT 0-0	Jaiba Brava
12/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	1-0 HT 0-0	Jaiba Brava
28/07/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	1-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Morelia
20/03/22 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-1 HT 1-1	Jaiba Brava
05/12/21 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	0-2 HT 0-1	Jaiba Brava

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	12	7	3	2	28	17	24
2	Club Atletico La Paz	12	7	2	3	28	15	23
3	Atletico Morelia	12	7	2	3	22	13	23
4	Venados FC	12	6	2	4	27	22	20
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	12	5	3	4	25	21	18
6	Cancun FC	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
7	Piratas	12	5	3	4	18	14	18
8	Alacranes de Durango	12	5	3	4	11	11	18
9	Correcaminos	12	4	4	4	20	20	16
10	Tlaxcala FC	12	4	3	5	23	25	15
11	Tapatio	11	4	2	5	19	19	14
12	Dorados	12	3	4	5	21	23	13
13	Oaxaca	12	4	1	7	10	23	13
14	Jaiba Brava	12	3	3	6	12	19	12
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
16	Tepatitlan FC	11	2	1	8	9	30	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Morelia	Jaiba Brava
Tepatitlan FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Tlaxcala FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Venados FC	1-2 L	4-3 W
Universidad Guadalajara	2-0 W	0-4 L
Mineros de Zacatecas	1-0 W	0-2 L
Oaxaca	4-1 W	2-1 W
Dorados	1-0 W	1-1 D
Correcaminos	1-3 L	0-1 L
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Morelia (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Morelia

WWLWWWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	11	7	D
04/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	11	8	D
27/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	12	5	L
20/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
13/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	10	W
06/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
29/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	16	7	L
15/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
09/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	4-1	10	6	W

Jaiba Brava

WLWLWLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
03/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-3	10	6	L
26/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
20/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
13/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	7	7	L
06/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-3	1	9	W
30/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
23/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
16/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	0-4	5	8	L
09/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-0	3	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Morelia vs Jaiba Brava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Morelia win (56%). Probabilities: Atletico Morelia 56%, draw 26%, Jaiba Brava 18%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Morelia vs Jaiba Brava?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Atletico Morelia 1.73 · Jaiba Brava 0.9), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Morelia vs Jaiba Brava?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.