Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 18/10, 03:00

Prediction: Piratas vs Tepatitlan FC

Team pages: Piratas · Tepatitlan FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

Piratas2.73

Tepatitlan FC0.98

1X2

73% 16% 10%

Piratas Draw Tepatitlan FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Piratas 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWDWLWL

Tepatitlan FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Piratas 1506 · Tepatitlan FC 1435

	Piratas	Draw	Tepatitlan FC
Our model	73%	16%	10%
Market	73%	17%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Piratas (rating 1506 vs 1435).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Piratas	Tepatitlan FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	0.9 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.6	2.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 1.3	5.2 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.50

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.82

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +10’	1.25	5.50	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	12	7	3	2	28	17	24
2	Club Atletico La Paz	12	7	2	3	28	15	23
3	Atletico Morelia	12	7	2	3	22	13	23
4	Venados FC	12	6	2	4	27	22	20
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	12	5	3	4	25	21	18
6	Cancun FC	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
7	Piratas	12	5	3	4	18	14	18
8	Alacranes de Durango	12	5	3	4	11	11	18
9	Correcaminos	12	4	4	4	20	20	16
10	Tlaxcala FC	12	4	3	5	23	25	15
11	Tapatio	11	4	2	5	19	19	14
12	Dorados	12	3	4	5	21	23	13
13	Oaxaca	12	4	1	7	10	23	13
14	Jaiba Brava	12	3	3	6	12	19	12
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
16	Tepatitlan FC	11	2	1	8	9	30	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Piratas	Tepatitlan FC
Tlaxcala FC	2-4 L	3-2 W
Oaxaca	4-0 W	0-1 L
Mineros de Zacatecas	0-3 L	0-1 L
Venados FC	2-1 W	0-5 L
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1-1 D	0-6 L
Correcaminos	4-1 W	1-3 L
Club Atletico La Paz	0-2 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Piratas (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Piratas

WLLDWDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-4	4	6	L
04/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	4-0	11	3	W
25/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-3	7	9	L
19/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
11/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
06/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	4-1	5	10	W
30/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
23/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
15/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-2	9	5	L
08/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	9	3	W

Tepatitlan FC

LLLWLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
03/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-1	3	6	W
19/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
13/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-5	12	6	L
04/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-3	1-4	6	8	L
29/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-6	2	5	L
21/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-2	5	6	W
14/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	0	7	L
08/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-5	6	7	L
01/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-3	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Piratas vs Tepatitlan FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Piratas win (73%). Probabilities: Piratas 73%, draw 16%, Tepatitlan FC 10%.

How many goals are expected in Piratas vs Tepatitlan FC?

The model expects 3.71 goals (Piratas 2.73 · Tepatitlan FC 0.98), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Piratas vs Tepatitlan FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.