Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 18/10, 20:00
Prediction: Universidad Guadalajara vs Oaxaca
Team pages: Universidad Guadalajara · Oaxaca
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.25Total
Universidad Guadalajara2.21
Oaxaca1.05
1X2
Universidad Guadalajara
Draw
Oaxaca
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Universidad Guadalajara
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Oaxaca
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universidad Guadalajara
3–2–1
Oaxaca
(6 last)
- Oaxaca1-1Universidad Guadalajara
- Universidad Guadalajara0-1Oaxaca
- Universidad Guadalajara3-2Oaxaca
- Oaxaca2-2Universidad Guadalajara
- Oaxaca0-3Universidad Guadalajara
- Universidad Guadalajara5-0Oaxaca
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Guadalajara 1543 · Oaxaca 1478
| Universidad Guadalajara | Draw | Oaxaca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Guadalajara (rating 1543 vs 1478).
- H2H favours Universidad Guadalajara: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Guadalajara | Oaxaca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.6 | 2.2 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 5.3 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Guadalajara 3–2–1 Oaxaca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Oaxaca | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Universidad Guadalajara |
| 18/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Universidad Guadalajara | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Oaxaca |
| 16/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Universidad Guadalajara | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Oaxaca |
| 30/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Oaxaca | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Universidad Guadalajara |
| 15/02/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Oaxaca | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Universidad Guadalajara |
| 04/08/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Universidad Guadalajara | 5-0 HT 4-0 | Oaxaca |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico La Paz | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Universidad Guadalajara | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Atletico Morelia | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 15 | 23 |
| 4 | Piratas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 23 | 21 |
| 6 | Alacranes de Durango | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Cancun FC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 8 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 18 |
| 9 | Tapatio | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 25 | 17 |
| 10 | Dorados | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 24 | 16 |
| 11 | Correcaminos | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 22 | 16 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 16 |
| 13 | Jaiba Brava | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 15 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 15 | Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 13 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan FC | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 37 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universidad Guadalajara | Oaxaca |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Morelia | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Club Atletico La Paz | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Tapatio | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Piratas | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| Alacranes de Durango | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Jaiba Brava | 4-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Correcaminos | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Universidad Guadalajara (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad Guadalajara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 04/10 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
3-0 | 6-3 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 2-1 | 20 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 07/09 | Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 07/08 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
Oaxaca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 04/10 | Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-4 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/09 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 11/09 | Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 06/09 | Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 14/08 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 07/08 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universidad Guadalajara vs Oaxaca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Guadalajara win (63%). Probabilities: Universidad Guadalajara 63%, draw 21%, Oaxaca 16%.
How many goals are expected in Universidad Guadalajara vs Oaxaca?
The model expects 3.25 goals (Universidad Guadalajara 2.21 · Oaxaca 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Universidad Guadalajara vs Oaxaca?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.