Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 18/10, 05:00

Prediction: Alacranes de Durango vs Tapatio

Team pages: Alacranes de Durango · Tapatio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Alacranes de Durango1.89

Tapatio1.11

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Alacranes de Durango Draw Tapatio

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Alacranes de Durango 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLWWWD

Tapatio 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Alacranes de Durango 0–2 Tapatio (2 last)

Alacranes de Durango2-5Tapatio
Tapatio3-1Alacranes de Durango

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alacranes de Durango 1502 · Tapatio 1496

	Alacranes de Durango	Draw	Tapatio
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tapatio: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alacranes de Durango	Tapatio
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	2.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.8	2.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.7	5.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 05:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.70▼	Bet365 1.70
X	3.50 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	3.60 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.64 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:29 +3’	1.91	3.50	3.60
02:15 +5’	1.67▼	3.70▲	4.50▲
00:11 +5’	1.70▲	3.70	4.33▼
05:17 +7’	1.70	4.00▲	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:11 +5’	1.67	3.80	4.50
02:15 +5’	1.68▲	3.84▲	4.57▲
05:03 +30’	1.70▲	3.89▲	4.64▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alacranes de Durango 0–0–2 Tapatio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Alacranes de Durango	2-5 HT 2-1	Tapatio
30/06/22 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	3-1 HT 1-1	Alacranes de Durango

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	12	7	3	2	28	17	24
2	Club Atletico La Paz	12	7	2	3	28	15	23
3	Atletico Morelia	12	7	2	3	22	13	23
4	Venados FC	12	6	2	4	27	22	20
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	12	5	3	4	25	21	18
6	Cancun FC	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
7	Piratas	12	5	3	4	18	14	18
8	Alacranes de Durango	12	5	3	4	11	11	18
9	Tapatio	12	5	2	5	23	20	17
10	Correcaminos	12	4	4	4	20	20	16
11	Tlaxcala FC	12	4	3	5	23	25	15
12	Dorados	12	3	4	5	21	23	13
13	Oaxaca	12	4	1	7	10	23	13
14	Jaiba Brava	12	3	3	6	12	19	12
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
16	Tepatitlan FC	12	2	1	9	10	34	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alacranes de Durango	Tapatio
Mineros de Zacatecas	4-2 W	4-2 W
Dorados	1-0 W	1-3 L
Oaxaca	0-1 L	1-1 D
Tlaxcala FC	1-1 D	4-0 W
Correcaminos	0-0 D	3-2 W
Universidad Guadalajara	1-2 L	1-3 L
Cancun FC	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tapatio (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alacranes de Durango

LLLDDLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
04/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	8	6	W
27/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
18/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	9	10	W
11/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
05/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	5	9	D
29/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
23/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
16/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
08/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-3	3	3	L

Tapatio

LWWDLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-1	4-1	10	7	W
10/10	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	2-4	4	7	L
04/10	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
21/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	4-0	5	4	W
13/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	2	8	L
07/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
28/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
24/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	3	7	W
15/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	3-2	7	5	W
09/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-3	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alacranes de Durango vs Tapatio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alacranes de Durango win (55%). Probabilities: Alacranes de Durango 55%, draw 24%, Tapatio 21%.

How many goals are expected in Alacranes de Durango vs Tapatio?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Alacranes de Durango 1.89 · Tapatio 1.11), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alacranes de Durango vs Tapatio?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.