Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 25/10, 01:00
Prediction: Tapatio vs Atletico Morelia
Team pages: Tapatio · Atletico Morelia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
Tapatio1.49
Atletico Morelia1.68
1X2
Tapatio
Draw
Atletico Morelia
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Tapatio
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Atletico Morelia
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tapatio
3–3–0
Atletico Morelia
(6 last)
- Tapatio2-1Atletico Morelia
- Atletico Morelia0-0Tapatio
- Tapatio1-0Atletico Morelia
- Atletico Morelia1-4Tapatio
- Tapatio0-0Atletico Morelia
- Atletico Morelia0-0Tapatio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tapatio 1503 · Atletico Morelia 1510
| Tapatio | Draw | Atletico Morelia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Tapatio: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tapatio | Atletico Morelia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.2 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.7 | 3.6 / 8.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.5 | 5.4 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tapatio 3–3–0 Atletico Morelia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Atletico Morelia |
| 12/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Atletico Morelia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tapatio |
| 18/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Morelia |
| 02/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Atletico Morelia | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Tapatio |
| 18/02/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Morelia |
| 18/09/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Atletico Morelia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tapatio |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico La Paz | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Universidad Guadalajara | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 19 | 24 |
| 3 | Atletico Morelia | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 15 | 23 |
| 4 | Piratas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 23 | 21 |
| 6 | Alacranes de Durango | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Cancun FC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 8 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 18 |
| 9 | Tapatio | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 25 | 17 |
| 10 | Dorados | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 24 | 16 |
| 11 | Correcaminos | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 22 | 16 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 16 |
| 13 | Oaxaca | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 16 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan FC | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 37 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tapatio | Atletico Morelia |
|---|---|---|
| Tepatitlan FC | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Tlaxcala FC | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Dorados | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Universidad Guadalajara | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Oaxaca | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Correcaminos | 3-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Tapatio (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tapatio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/10 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
3-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 04/10 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 21/09 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 07/09 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 24/08 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
Atletico Morelia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 04/10 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 8 | D |
| 27/09 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 13/09 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 06/09 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 16 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tapatio vs Atletico Morelia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Morelia win (41%). Probabilities: Tapatio 33%, draw 26%, Atletico Morelia 41%.
How many goals are expected in Tapatio vs Atletico Morelia?
The model expects 3.17 goals (Tapatio 1.49 · Atletico Morelia 1.68), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tapatio vs Atletico Morelia?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.