Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 25/10, 02:00

Prediction: Dorados vs Piratas

Team pages: Dorados · Piratas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Dorados1.16

Piratas1.93

1X2

22% 24% 54%

Dorados Draw Piratas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dorados 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Piratas 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dorados 1474 · Piratas 1502

	Dorados	Draw	Piratas
Our model	22%	24%	54%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dorados	Piratas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.2	3.5 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	5.2 / 1.4

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.90

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
X	3.70 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
2	1.80 → 1.70▼	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +8’	3.80	3.70	1.80
02:10 +8’	4.20▲	3.90▲	1.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	13	7	3	3	30	17	24
2	Universidad Guadalajara	13	7	3	3	29	19	24
3	Atletico Morelia	13	7	2	4	23	15	23
4	Piratas	13	6	3	4	21	14	21
5	Venados FC	13	6	3	4	28	23	21
6	Alacranes de Durango	13	6	3	4	16	11	21
7	Cancun FC	13	5	4	4	22	18	19
8	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	5	3	5	26	23	18
9	Tapatio	13	5	2	6	23	25	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	23	24	16
11	Correcaminos	13	4	4	5	21	22	16
12	Tlaxcala FC	13	4	4	5	25	27	16
13	Oaxaca	13	5	1	7	12	24	16
14	Jaiba Brava	13	4	3	6	14	20	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	3	5	5	16	20	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	13	2	1	10	10	37	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dorados	Piratas
Correcaminos	2-1 W	4-1 W
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1-3 L	1-1 D
Universidad Guadalajara	3-6 L	1-1 D
Cancun FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Tepatitlan FC	4-1 W	3-0 W
Venados FC	2-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Piratas (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dorados

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
04/10	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	3-6	1	2	L
27/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
20/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
16/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
13/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	13	8	W
04/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-1	4-1	1	8	W
29/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
21/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	2-4	2	2	L

Piratas

LLDWDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-0	11	5	W
11/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-4	4	6	L
04/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	4-0	11	3	W
25/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-3	7	9	L
19/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
11/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
06/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	4-1	5	10	W
30/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
23/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
15/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-2	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dorados vs Piratas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Piratas win (54%). Probabilities: Dorados 22%, draw 24%, Piratas 54%.

How many goals are expected in Dorados vs Piratas?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Dorados 1.16 · Piratas 1.93), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dorados vs Piratas?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.