Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 25/10, 03:00

Prediction: Mineros de Zacatecas vs Universidad Guadalajara

Team pages: Mineros de Zacatecas · Universidad Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Mineros de Zacatecas2.02

Universidad Guadalajara1.49

1X2

49% 24% 27%

Mineros de Zacatecas Draw Universidad Guadalajara

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Mineros de Zacatecas 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWLDL

Universidad Guadalajara 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWDLWWDL

Head-to-head

Mineros de Zacatecas 2–2–2 Universidad Guadalajara (6 last)

Universidad Guadalajara1-3Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas2-0Universidad Guadalajara
Mineros de Zacatecas0-0Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara3-1Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas2-2Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara1-0Mineros de Zacatecas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mineros de Zacatecas 1499 · Universidad Guadalajara 1523

	Mineros de Zacatecas	Draw	Universidad Guadalajara
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mineros de Zacatecas	Universidad Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	2.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	2.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 1	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.80

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 03:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.95▼	Pinn 1.99 ★
X	3.60 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	3.00 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +5’	2.10	3.60	3.00
02:14 +4’	1.95▼	3.70▲	3.30▲
15:24 +5’	1.91▼	3.60▼	3.25▼
03:13 +10’	1.95▲	3.80▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:11 +184’	1.99	3.76	3.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mineros de Zacatecas 2–2–2 Universidad Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	1-3 HT 1-2	Mineros de Zacatecas
12/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	2-0 HT 2-0	Universidad Guadalajara
26/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	0-0 HT 0-0	Universidad Guadalajara
10/11/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	3-1 HT 2-0	Mineros de Zacatecas
07/11/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	2-2 HT 1-2	Universidad Guadalajara
11/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	1-0 HT 0-0	Mineros de Zacatecas

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	13	7	3	3	30	17	24
2	Universidad Guadalajara	13	7	3	3	29	19	24
3	Atletico Morelia	13	7	2	4	23	15	23
4	Piratas	13	6	3	4	21	14	21
5	Venados FC	13	6	3	4	28	23	21
6	Alacranes de Durango	13	6	3	4	16	11	21
7	Cancun FC	13	5	4	4	22	18	19
8	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	5	3	5	26	23	18
9	Tapatio	13	5	2	6	23	25	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	23	24	16
11	Correcaminos	13	4	4	5	21	22	16
12	Tlaxcala FC	13	4	4	5	25	27	16
13	Oaxaca	13	5	1	7	12	24	16
14	Jaiba Brava	13	4	3	6	14	20	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	3	5	5	16	20	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	13	2	1	10	10	37	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mineros de Zacatecas	Universidad Guadalajara
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1-2 L	2-1 W
Alacranes de Durango	2-4 L	2-1 W
Piratas	3-0 W	1-1 D
Atletico Morelia	0-1 L	0-2 L
Club Atletico La Paz	0-3 L	2-2 D
Jaiba Brava	2-0 W	4-0 W
Tapatio	2-4 L	3-1 W
Venados FC	5-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Guadalajara (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mineros de Zacatecas

WLWLLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
11/10	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-2	4	6	D
04/10	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	4	6	L
25/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
19/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	10	L
05/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
30/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
24/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	2	7	L
15/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	5-1	5	6	W

Universidad Guadalajara

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	5	10	L
11/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
04/10	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	6-3	5	2	W
26/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-1	20	5	W
20/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
13/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
07/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
30/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
23/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	0	4	W
16/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-0	3	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mineros de Zacatecas vs Universidad Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mineros de Zacatecas win (49%). Probabilities: Mineros de Zacatecas 49%, draw 24%, Universidad Guadalajara 27%.

How many goals are expected in Mineros de Zacatecas vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Mineros de Zacatecas 2.02 · Universidad Guadalajara 1.49), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Mineros de Zacatecas vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.