Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 25/10, 03:00

Prediction: Jaiba Brava vs Club Atletico La Paz

Team pages: Jaiba Brava · Club Atletico La Paz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Jaiba Brava1.49

Club Atletico La Paz1.49

1X2

37% 27% 37%

Jaiba Brava Draw Club Atletico La Paz

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Jaiba Brava 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDLLDW

Club Atletico La Paz 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWWLWD

Head-to-head

Jaiba Brava 4–1–1 Club Atletico La Paz (6 last)

Club Atletico La Paz1-2Jaiba Brava
Jaiba Brava2-0Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz1-1Jaiba Brava
Jaiba Brava3-2Club Atletico La Paz
Jaiba Brava2-0Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz2-1Jaiba Brava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jaiba Brava 1494 · Club Atletico La Paz 1543

	Jaiba Brava	Draw	Club Atletico La Paz
Our model	37%	27%	37%
Market	36%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico La Paz (rating 1494 vs 1543).
H2H favours Jaiba Brava: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jaiba Brava	Club Atletico La Paz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	2.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	1.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.7	6.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.50

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 07:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.60▲	Bet365 2.60
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.67 ★
2	2.55 → 2.60▲	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 5.5% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +5’	2.50	3.40	2.55
01:10 +3’	2.55▲	3.40	2.50▼
15:27 +2’	2.50▼	3.30▼	2.45▼
03:13 +10’	2.63▲	3.50▲	2.55▲
07:04 +11’	2.60▼	3.50	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:43 +513’	2.58	3.67	2.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jaiba Brava 4–1–1 Club Atletico La Paz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	1-2 HT 1-1	Jaiba Brava
23/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	2-0 HT 0-0	Club Atletico La Paz
28/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	1-1 HT 0-1	Jaiba Brava
19/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	3-2 HT 2-1	Club Atletico La Paz
23/02/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	2-0 HT 1-0	Club Atletico La Paz
07/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	2-1 HT 0-1	Jaiba Brava

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	13	7	3	3	30	17	24
2	Universidad Guadalajara	13	7	3	3	29	19	24
3	Atletico Morelia	13	7	2	4	23	15	23
4	Piratas	13	6	3	4	21	14	21
5	Venados FC	13	6	3	4	28	23	21
6	Alacranes de Durango	13	6	3	4	16	11	21
7	Cancun FC	13	5	4	4	22	18	19
8	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	5	3	5	26	23	18
9	Tapatio	13	5	2	6	23	25	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	23	24	16
11	Correcaminos	13	4	4	5	21	22	16
12	Tlaxcala FC	13	4	4	5	25	27	16
13	Oaxaca	13	5	1	7	12	24	16
14	Jaiba Brava	13	4	3	6	14	20	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	3	5	5	16	20	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	13	2	1	10	10	37	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jaiba Brava	Club Atletico La Paz
Correcaminos	0-1 L	3-1 W
Tlaxcala FC	1-3 L	2-2 D
Venados FC	4-3 W	1-2 L
Mineros de Zacatecas	0-2 L	3-0 W
Oaxaca	2-1 W	3-1 W
Universidad Guadalajara	0-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico La Paz (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jaiba Brava

LWLWLDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
11/10	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
03/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-3	10	6	L
26/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
20/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
13/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	7	7	L
06/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-3	1	9	W
30/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
23/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	12	5	W
16/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	0-4	5	8	L

Club Atletico La Paz

WDWWDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	2-2	7	8	D
10/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	4-2	10	7	W
03/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
25/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
19/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	7	6	W
13/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-2	8	8	D
05/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
28/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-1	2	9	W
22/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
15/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jaiba Brava vs Club Atletico La Paz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jaiba Brava win (37%). Probabilities: Jaiba Brava 37%, draw 27%, Club Atletico La Paz 37%.

How many goals are expected in Jaiba Brava vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Jaiba Brava 1.49 · Club Atletico La Paz 1.49), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Jaiba Brava vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.