Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 25/10, 19:00

Prediction: Tlaxcala FC vs Correcaminos

Team pages: Tlaxcala FC · Correcaminos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Tlaxcala FC2.03

Correcaminos1.5

1X2

49% 24% 27%

Tlaxcala FC Draw Correcaminos

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Tlaxcala FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLWDWD

Correcaminos 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLDLWDLL

Head-to-head

Tlaxcala FC 1–2–3 Correcaminos (6 last)

Correcaminos2-1Tlaxcala FC
Tlaxcala FC0-2Correcaminos
Correcaminos1-1Tlaxcala FC
Tlaxcala FC3-2Correcaminos
Correcaminos1-1Tlaxcala FC
Tlaxcala FC0-1Correcaminos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tlaxcala FC 1527 · Correcaminos 1463

	Tlaxcala FC	Draw	Correcaminos
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tlaxcala FC (rating 1527 vs 1463).
H2H favours Correcaminos: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tlaxcala FC	Correcaminos
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	1.8 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 1	6.2 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.80

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.00 ★
X	3.70 → 3.80▲	Pinn 3.86
2	3.30 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:58 +29’	1.95	3.70	3.30
15:36 +2’	1.95	3.60▼	3.20▼
03:13 +18’	1.95	3.80▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:45 +159’	2.00	3.84	3.24
06:54 +20’	2.00	3.86▲	3.23▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tlaxcala FC 1–2–3 Correcaminos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Correcaminos	2-1 HT 2-0	Tlaxcala FC
24/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Correcaminos
17/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Correcaminos	1-1 HT 1-1	Tlaxcala FC
04/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	3-2 HT 0-0	Correcaminos
02/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Correcaminos	1-1 HT 0-0	Tlaxcala FC
02/11/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Correcaminos

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	13	7	3	3	30	17	24
2	Universidad Guadalajara	13	7	3	3	29	19	24
3	Atletico Morelia	13	7	2	4	23	15	23
4	Piratas	13	6	3	4	21	14	21
5	Venados FC	13	6	3	4	28	23	21
6	Alacranes de Durango	13	6	3	4	16	11	21
7	Cancun FC	13	5	4	4	22	18	19
8	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	5	3	5	26	23	18
9	Tapatio	13	5	2	6	23	25	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	23	24	16
11	Correcaminos	13	4	4	5	21	22	16
12	Tlaxcala FC	13	4	4	5	25	27	16
13	Oaxaca	13	5	1	7	12	24	16
14	Jaiba Brava	13	4	3	6	14	20	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	3	5	5	16	20	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	13	2	1	10	10	37	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tlaxcala FC	Correcaminos
Club Atletico La Paz	2-2 D	1-3 L
Piratas	4-2 W	1-4 L
Atletico Morelia	1-1 D	3-1 W
Cancun FC	4-1 W	2-2 D
Tapatio	0-4 L	2-3 L
Jaiba Brava	3-1 W	1-0 W
Alacranes de Durango	1-1 D	0-0 D
Dorados	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Tlaxcala FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tlaxcala FC

DLWDWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
11/10	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	4-2	7	6	W
04/10	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
27/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	4-1	1	6	W
21/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-4	8	4	L
13/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	5	7	W
05/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
30/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	10	W
21/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-3	3	6	L
16/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-2	1	5	D

Correcaminos

LWDLDLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	11	5	L
09/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-2	3	7	L
03/10	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	11	8	D
26/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	9	8	W
19/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
12/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-2	7	9	D
06/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-4	3	10	L
29/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
21/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	5	7	W
15/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-3	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tlaxcala FC vs Correcaminos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tlaxcala FC win (49%). Probabilities: Tlaxcala FC 49%, draw 24%, Correcaminos 27%.

How many goals are expected in Tlaxcala FC vs Correcaminos?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Tlaxcala FC 2.03 · Correcaminos 1.5), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tlaxcala FC vs Correcaminos?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.