Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 31/10, 04:00

Prediction: Club Atletico La Paz vs Dorados

Team pages: Club Atletico La Paz · Dorados

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.04Total

Club Atletico La Paz2.7

Dorados1.34

1X2

65% 19% 16%

Club Atletico La Paz Draw Dorados

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Atletico La Paz 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWLWDW

Dorados 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDDLLLWL

Head-to-head

Club Atletico La Paz 3–2–1 Dorados (6 last)

Dorados2-2Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz3-1Dorados
Club Atletico La Paz0-0Dorados
Dorados4-0Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz1-0Dorados
Dorados3-4Club Atletico La Paz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Atletico La Paz 1567 · Dorados 1456

	Club Atletico La Paz	Draw	Dorados
Our model	66%	18%	16%
Market	65%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 4.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico La Paz (rating 1567 vs 1456).
H2H favours Club Atletico La Paz: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Atletico La Paz	Dorados
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.3	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.7	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.4	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.19 ★
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
07:51 +19’	1.44	4.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:58 +11’	1.40	5.19	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico La Paz 3–2–1 Dorados

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Dorados	2-2 HT 1-0	Club Atletico La Paz
30/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	3-1 HT 1-0	Dorados
12/04/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	0-0 HT 0-0	Dorados
27/10/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Dorados	4-0 HT 3-0	Club Atletico La Paz
23/02/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	1-0 HT 1-0	Dorados
31/07/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Dorados	3-4 HT 0-1	Club Atletico La Paz

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	14	8	3	3	33	18	27
2	Universidad Guadalajara	14	8	3	3	31	19	27
3	Atletico Morelia	14	8	2	4	25	16	26
4	Piratas	14	7	3	4	26	14	24
5	Venados FC	14	7	3	4	31	25	24
6	Cancun FC	14	6	4	4	26	18	22
7	Alacranes de Durango	14	6	3	5	18	14	21
8	Tlaxcala FC	14	5	4	5	27	27	19
9	Oaxaca	14	6	1	7	14	25	19
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	14	5	3	6	26	25	18
11	Tapatio	14	5	2	7	24	27	17
12	Correcaminos	14	4	4	6	21	24	16
13	Dorados	14	4	4	6	23	29	16
14	Jaiba Brava	14	4	3	7	15	23	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	3	5	6	17	22	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	14	2	1	11	10	41	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Atletico La Paz	Dorados
Jaiba Brava	3-1 W	1-1 D
Tapatio	4-2 W	3-1 W
Correcaminos	3-1 W	2-1 W
Universidad Guadalajara	2-2 D	3-6 L
Cancun FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico La Paz (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Atletico La Paz

DWWDWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	5	4	W
17/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	2-2	7	8	D
10/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	4-2	10	7	W
03/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
25/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
19/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	7	6	W
13/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-2	8	8	D
05/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
28/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-1	2	9	W
22/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	8	D

Dorados

LWWDDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-5	0	4	L
17/10	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
04/10	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	3-6	1	2	L
27/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
20/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
16/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
13/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	13	8	W
04/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-1	4-1	1	8	W
29/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Atletico La Paz vs Dorados?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Atletico La Paz win (65%). Probabilities: Club Atletico La Paz 65%, draw 19%, Dorados 16%.

How many goals are expected in Club Atletico La Paz vs Dorados?

The model expects 4.04 goals (Club Atletico La Paz 2.7 · Dorados 1.34), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Atletico La Paz vs Dorados?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.