Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 01/11, 19:00

Prediction: Universidad Guadalajara vs Tepatitlan FC

Team pages: Universidad Guadalajara · Tepatitlan FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Universidad Guadalajara2.44

Tepatitlan FC1.25

1X2

63% 20% 17%

Universidad Guadalajara Draw Tepatitlan FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Guadalajara 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWWDLW

Tepatitlan FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWDLLL

Head-to-head

Universidad Guadalajara 2–3–1 Tepatitlan FC (6 last)

Universidad Guadalajara0-0Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC1-1Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara2-1Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC2-1Universidad Guadalajara
Tepatitlan FC1-1Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara1-0Tepatitlan FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Guadalajara (rating 1541 vs 1417).
H2H favours Universidad Guadalajara: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Guadalajara	Tepatitlan FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	0.9 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	5.1 / 1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 16:32

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.29 → 1.25▼	Pinn 1.25
X	5.42 → 6.12▲	Pinn 6.12
2	7.61 → 8.61▲	Pinn 8.61

See the full journey (5)

Pinnacle margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:28 +45’	1.29	5.42	7.61
07:31 +43’	1.27▼	5.80▲	8.27▲
19:26 +15’	1.27▲	5.77▼	8.23▼
17:44	1.25▼	6.01▲	8.46▲
16:13 +19’	1.25▼	6.12▲	8.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Guadalajara 2–3–1 Tepatitlan FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	0-0 HT 0-0	Tepatitlan FC
08/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Universidad Guadalajara
27/04/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-1 HT 1-0	Tepatitlan FC
25/04/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Universidad Guadalajara
01/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara
16/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	1-0 HT 1-0	Tepatitlan FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	14	8	3	3	33	18	27
2	Universidad Guadalajara	14	8	3	3	31	19	27
3	Atletico Morelia	14	8	2	4	25	16	26
4	Piratas	14	7	3	4	26	14	24
5	Venados FC	14	7	3	4	31	25	24
6	Cancun FC	14	6	4	4	26	18	22
7	Alacranes de Durango	14	6	3	5	18	14	21
8	Tlaxcala FC	14	5	4	5	27	27	19
9	Oaxaca	14	6	1	7	14	25	19
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	14	5	3	6	26	25	18
11	Tapatio	14	5	2	7	24	27	17
12	Correcaminos	14	4	4	6	21	24	16
13	Dorados	14	4	4	6	23	29	16
14	Jaiba Brava	14	4	3	7	15	23	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	3	5	6	17	22	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	14	2	1	11	10	41	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Guadalajara	Tepatitlan FC
Mineros de Zacatecas	2-0 W	0-1 L
Venados FC	1-1 D	0-5 L
Dorados	6-3 W	1-4 L
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2-1 W	0-6 L
Atletico Morelia	0-2 L	1-1 D
Tapatio	3-1 W	1-4 L
Piratas	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Guadalajara (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad Guadalajara

WDWDLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
18/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	5	10	L
11/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
04/10	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	6-3	5	2	W
26/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-1	20	5	W
20/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
13/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
07/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
30/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
23/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	0	4	W

Tepatitlan FC

WLLLLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-4	5	7	L
18/10	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
14/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-3	1-4	4	7	L
10/10	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
03/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-1	3	6	W
19/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
13/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-5	12	6	L
04/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-3	1-4	6	8	L
29/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-6	2	5	L
21/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-2	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Guadalajara vs Tepatitlan FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Guadalajara win (63%). Probabilities: Universidad Guadalajara 63%, draw 20%, Tepatitlan FC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Guadalajara vs Tepatitlan FC?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Universidad Guadalajara 2.44 · Tepatitlan FC 1.25), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Guadalajara vs Tepatitlan FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.