Prediction: Piratas vs Tapatio
| Piratas | Draw | Tapatio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Market | 71% | 17% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Piratas (rating 1531 vs 1463).
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Piratas | Tapatio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 6.5 | 2.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 1.4 | 5.5 / 0.7 |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico La Paz | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 18 | 27 |
| 2 | Universidad Guadalajara | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | Atletico Morelia | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 16 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 25 | 24 |
| 6 | Cancun FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 22 |
| 7 | Oaxaca | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 22 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 21 |
| 9 | Tlaxcala FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 19 |
| 10 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 27 | 17 |
| 12 | Correcaminos | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 16 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 23 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan FC | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 41 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Piratas | Tapatio |
|---|---|---|
| Dorados | 5-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Tepatitlan FC | 3-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Tlaxcala FC | 2-4 L | 4-0 W |
| Oaxaca | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 0-3 L | 4-2 W |
| Universidad Guadalajara | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Cancun FC | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Piratas (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Piratas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/10 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 25/09 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 19/09 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 11/09 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 06/09 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 30/08 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
Tapatio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 18/10 | Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/10 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
3-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 04/10 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 21/09 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 07/09 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 24/08 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Piratas vs Tapatio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Piratas win (71%). Probabilities: Piratas 71%, draw 17%, Tapatio 12%.
How many goals are expected in Piratas vs Tapatio?
The model expects 3.94 goals (Piratas 2.8 · Tapatio 1.14), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Piratas vs Tapatio?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.