Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 01/11, 02:00

Prediction: Cancun FC vs Jaiba Brava

Team pages: Cancun FC · Jaiba Brava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Cancun FC1.84

Jaiba Brava1.1

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Cancun FC Draw Jaiba Brava

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Cancun FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDWLWDDW

Jaiba Brava 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLLDWL

Head-to-head

Cancun FC 1–1–4 Jaiba Brava (6 last)

Cancun FC1-1Jaiba Brava
Jaiba Brava2-1Cancun FC
Cancun FC1-2Jaiba Brava
Jaiba Brava2-1Cancun FC
Jaiba Brava0-2Cancun FC
Cancun FC0-1Jaiba Brava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cancun FC 1526 · Jaiba Brava 1489

	Cancun FC	Draw	Jaiba Brava
Our model	53%	25%	22%
Market	53%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Jaiba Brava: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cancun FC	Jaiba Brava
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	2.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.8	5.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.75

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.76
X	3.70 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.88 ★
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.47

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +3’	1.73	3.70	4.33
02:20 +4’	1.73	3.80▲	4.50▲
15:57 +5’	1.75▲	3.75▼	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +8’	1.74	3.80	4.37
02:41 +38’	1.76▲	3.85▲	4.44▲
17:22 +9’	1.76▲	3.88▲	4.47▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cancun FC 1–1–4 Jaiba Brava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Jaiba Brava
01/05/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	2-1 HT 0-0	Cancun FC
01/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Jaiba Brava
21/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	2-1 HT 1-0	Cancun FC
09/02/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	0-2 HT 0-2	Cancun FC
25/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Jaiba Brava

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	14	8	3	3	33	18	27
2	Universidad Guadalajara	14	8	3	3	31	19	27
3	Atletico Morelia	14	8	2	4	25	16	26
4	Piratas	14	7	3	4	26	14	24
5	Venados FC	14	7	3	4	31	25	24
6	Cancun FC	14	6	4	4	26	18	22
7	Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15	25	22
8	Alacranes de Durango	14	6	3	5	18	14	21
9	Tlaxcala FC	14	5	4	5	27	27	19
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26	26	18
11	Tapatio	14	5	2	7	24	27	17
12	Correcaminos	14	4	4	6	21	24	16
13	Dorados	14	4	4	6	23	29	16
14	Jaiba Brava	14	4	3	7	15	23	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	3	5	6	17	22	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	14	2	1	11	10	41	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cancun FC	Jaiba Brava
Tepatitlan FC	4-0 W	1-3 L
Venados FC	1-1 D	4-3 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	2-2 D	0-2 L
Tlaxcala FC	1-4 L	1-3 L
Oaxaca	3-0 W	2-1 W
Dorados	1-1 D	1-1 D
Correcaminos	2-2 D	0-1 L
Club Atletico La Paz	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Cancun FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cancun FC

LWDDWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-0	2	7	W
18/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
11/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-2	6	6	D
04/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
27/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-4	6	6	L
20/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	2	8	W
16/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
12/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
06/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	6-0	4	5	W
28/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-2	7	9	L

Jaiba Brava

WLWLDLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	7	4	L
18/10	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
11/10	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
03/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-3	10	6	L
26/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
20/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
13/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	7	7	L
06/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-3	1	9	W
30/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
23/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	12	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cancun FC vs Jaiba Brava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cancun FC win (53%). Probabilities: Cancun FC 53%, draw 25%, Jaiba Brava 22%.

How many goals are expected in Cancun FC vs Jaiba Brava?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Cancun FC 1.84 · Jaiba Brava 1.1), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cancun FC vs Jaiba Brava?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.