Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 08/11, 04:05
Prediction: Club Atletico La Paz vs Tlaxcala FC
Team pages: Club Atletico La Paz · Tlaxcala FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.42Total
Club Atletico La Paz2.16
Tlaxcala FC1.26
1X2
Club Atletico La Paz
Draw
Tlaxcala FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Club Atletico La Paz
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Tlaxcala FC
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Club Atletico La Paz
3–3–0
Tlaxcala FC
(6 last)
- Tlaxcala FC0-1Club Atletico La Paz
- Club Atletico La Paz2-2Tlaxcala FC
- Club Atletico La Paz2-0Tlaxcala FC
- Tlaxcala FC3-3Club Atletico La Paz
- Club Atletico La Paz4-4Tlaxcala FC
- Tlaxcala FC0-2Club Atletico La Paz
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Club Atletico La Paz 1588 · Tlaxcala FC 1531
| Club Atletico La Paz | Draw | Tlaxcala FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Market | 58% | 21% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico La Paz (rating 1588 vs 1531).
- H2H favours Club Atletico La Paz: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Atletico La Paz | Tlaxcala FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.1 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 6.1 | 1.9 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.4 | 5.7 / 1.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico La Paz 3–3–0 Tlaxcala FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tlaxcala FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Club Atletico La Paz |
| 17/10/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Club Atletico La Paz | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Tlaxcala FC |
| 08/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Club Atletico La Paz | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Tlaxcala FC |
| 28/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tlaxcala FC | 3-3 HT 1-0 | Club Atletico La Paz |
| 11/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Club Atletico La Paz | 4-4 HT 2-1 | Tlaxcala FC |
| 28/07/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tlaxcala FC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Club Atletico La Paz |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico La Paz | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 18 | 30 |
| 2 | Universidad Guadalajara | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 30 |
| 3 | Atletico Morelia | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 15 | 25 |
| 5 | Cancun FC | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 18 | 25 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 25 | 25 |
| 7 | Alacranes de Durango | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala FC | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 27 | 22 |
| 9 | Oaxaca | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 22 |
| 10 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 28 | 18 |
| 12 | Correcaminos | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 17 |
| 13 | Dorados | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 32 | 16 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 25 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan FC | 15 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 44 | 7 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Club Atletico La Paz | Tlaxcala FC |
|---|---|---|
| Jaiba Brava | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Tapatio | 4-2 W | 0-4 L |
| Correcaminos | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Club Atletico La Paz (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Club Atletico La Paz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 31/10 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 25/10 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/10 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 10/10 | Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-2 | 4-2 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 03/10 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 25/09 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 05/09 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Tlaxcala FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 31/10 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 8 | W |
| 25/10 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 17/10 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 11/10 | Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 4-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 04/10 | Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 27/09 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 21/09 | Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Club Atletico La Paz vs Tlaxcala FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Atletico La Paz win (57%). Probabilities: Club Atletico La Paz 57%, draw 21%, Tlaxcala FC 21%.
How many goals are expected in Club Atletico La Paz vs Tlaxcala FC?
The model expects 3.42 goals (Club Atletico La Paz 2.16 · Tlaxcala FC 1.26), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Club Atletico La Paz vs Tlaxcala FC?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.