Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 06/11, 04:05

Prediction: Alacranes de Durango vs Universidad Guadalajara

Team pages: Alacranes de Durango · Universidad Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Alacranes de Durango1.57

Universidad Guadalajara1.32

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Alacranes de Durango Draw Universidad Guadalajara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alacranes de Durango 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWDWLW

Universidad Guadalajara 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLWWDLWW

Head-to-head

Alacranes de Durango 1–2 Universidad Guadalajara (3 last)

Alacranes de Durango1-2Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara1-0Alacranes de Durango
Alacranes de Durango1-0Universidad Guadalajara

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Universidad Guadalajara: 2-0-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alacranes de Durango	Universidad Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.4	2.9 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.6 / 0.8	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.96

Under 2.751.83

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:05

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.92 → 1.92	Pinn 1.92
X	3.55 → 3.55	Pinn 3.55
2	3.83 → 3.83	Pinn 3.83

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:45 +20’	1.92	3.55	3.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alacranes de Durango 1–0–2 Universidad Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Alacranes de Durango	1-2 HT 1-2	Universidad Guadalajara
08/02/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	1-0 HT 0-0	Alacranes de Durango
18/08/22 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Alacranes de Durango	1-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	15	9	3	3	36	18	30
2	Universidad Guadalajara	15	9	3	3	34	20	30
3	Atletico Morelia	15	8	2	5	26	19	26
4	Piratas	15	7	4	4	27	15	25
5	Cancun FC	15	7	4	4	28	18	25
6	Venados FC	15	7	4	4	31	25	25
7	Alacranes de Durango	15	7	3	5	21	15	24
8	Tlaxcala FC	15	6	4	5	29	27	22
9	Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15	25	22
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26	26	18
11	Tapatio	15	5	3	7	25	28	18
12	Correcaminos	15	4	5	6	21	24	17
13	Dorados	15	4	4	7	23	32	16
14	Jaiba Brava	15	4	3	8	15	25	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	15	3	5	7	17	24	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	15	2	1	12	11	44	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alacranes de Durango	Universidad Guadalajara
Atletico Morelia	3-1 W	0-2 L
Venados FC	2-3 L	1-1 D
Tapatio	5-0 W	3-1 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	4-2 W	2-0 W
Dorados	1-0 W	6-3 W
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2-0 W	2-1 W
Oaxaca	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Alacranes de Durango (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alacranes de Durango

DDLWWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-1	0	6	W
25/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-3	3	10	L
18/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	5-0	4	5	W
11/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
04/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	8	6	W
27/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
18/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	9	10	W
11/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
05/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	5	9	D
29/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Universidad Guadalajara

DWDLWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	3-1	14	8	W
25/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
18/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	5	10	L
11/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
04/10	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	6-3	5	2	W
26/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-1	20	5	W
20/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
13/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
07/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
30/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alacranes de Durango vs Universidad Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alacranes de Durango win (42%). Probabilities: Alacranes de Durango 42%, draw 27%, Universidad Guadalajara 31%.

How many goals are expected in Alacranes de Durango vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Alacranes de Durango 1.57 · Universidad Guadalajara 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alacranes de Durango vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.