Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 08/11, 19:00

Prediction: Universidad Guadalajara vs Alacranes de Durango

Team pages: Universidad Guadalajara · Alacranes de Durango

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Universidad Guadalajara1.66

Alacranes de Durango1.21

1X2

47% 26% 27%

Universidad Guadalajara Draw Alacranes de Durango

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Guadalajara 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDLWWL

Alacranes de Durango 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWDWLWW

Head-to-head

Universidad Guadalajara 2–2 Alacranes de Durango (4 last)

Alacranes de Durango1-0Universidad Guadalajara
Alacranes de Durango1-2Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara1-0Alacranes de Durango
Alacranes de Durango1-0Universidad Guadalajara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad Guadalajara 1538 · Alacranes de Durango 1541

	Universidad Guadalajara	Draw	Alacranes de Durango
Our model	47%	27%	27%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Guadalajara	Alacranes de Durango
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	1.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 7.2	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	6.9 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.90▼	Pinn 1.95
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.60
2	3.20 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.67 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +36’	2.05	3.50	3.20
15:18 +4’	1.90▼	3.50	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:27 +1033’	2.10	3.44	3.27
03:37 +64’	2.12▲	3.48▲	3.30▲
12:32 +22’	1.95▼	3.60▲	3.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Guadalajara 2–0–2 Alacranes de Durango

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/11/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Alacranes de Durango	1-0 HT 0-0	Universidad Guadalajara
23/08/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Alacranes de Durango	1-2 HT 1-2	Universidad Guadalajara
08/02/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	1-0 HT 0-0	Alacranes de Durango
18/08/22 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Alacranes de Durango	1-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	15	9	3	3	36	18	30
2	Universidad Guadalajara	15	9	3	3	34	20	30
3	Atletico Morelia	15	8	2	5	26	19	26
4	Piratas	15	7	4	4	27	15	25
5	Cancun FC	15	7	4	4	28	18	25
6	Venados FC	15	7	4	4	31	25	25
7	Alacranes de Durango	15	7	3	5	21	15	24
8	Tlaxcala FC	15	6	4	5	29	27	22
9	Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15	25	22
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26	26	18
11	Tapatio	15	5	3	7	25	28	18
12	Correcaminos	15	4	5	6	21	24	17
13	Dorados	15	4	4	7	23	32	16
14	Jaiba Brava	15	4	3	8	15	25	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	15	3	5	7	17	24	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	15	2	1	12	11	44	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Guadalajara	Alacranes de Durango
Mineros de Zacatecas	2-0 W	4-2 W
Oaxaca	1-2 L	0-1 L
Venados FC	1-1 D	2-3 L
Dorados	6-3 W	1-0 W
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2-1 W	2-0 W
Atletico Morelia	0-2 L	3-1 W
Tapatio	3-1 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Alacranes de Durango (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad Guadalajara

WDLWWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
01/11	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	3-1	14	8	W
25/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
18/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	5	10	L
11/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
04/10	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	6-3	5	2	W
26/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-1	20	5	W
20/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
13/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
07/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	4	3	W

Alacranes de Durango

DLWWWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
01/11	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-1	0	6	W
25/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-3	3	10	L
18/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	5-0	4	5	W
11/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
04/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	8	6	W
27/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
18/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	9	10	W
11/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
05/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	5	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Guadalajara vs Alacranes de Durango?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Guadalajara win (47%). Probabilities: Universidad Guadalajara 47%, draw 26%, Alacranes de Durango 27%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Guadalajara vs Alacranes de Durango?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Universidad Guadalajara 1.66 · Alacranes de Durango 1.21), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Guadalajara vs Alacranes de Durango?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.