Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 08/11, 02:00

Prediction: Atletico Morelia vs Venados FC

Team pages: Atletico Morelia · Venados FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Atletico Morelia1.76

Venados FC1.36

1X2

46% 25% 29%

Atletico Morelia Draw Venados FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Morelia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Venados FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atletico Morelia 2–1–3 Venados FC (6 last)

Venados FC2-1Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia2-1Venados FC
Venados FC2-2Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia1-0Venados FC
Venados FC2-1Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia3-4Venados FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Venados FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Morelia	Venados FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.8	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 1	6.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:22

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.59 → 1.59	Pinn 1.59
X	4.31 → 4.31	Pinn 4.31
2	4.57 → 4.57	Pinn 4.57

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
05:41 +461’	1.59	4.31	4.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Morelia 2–1–3 Venados FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Morelia
15/02/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-1 HT 1-0	Venados FC
05/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Morelia
03/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	1-0 HT 0-0	Venados FC
14/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Morelia
29/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	3-4 HT 2-1	Venados FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	15	9	3	3	36	18	30
2	Universidad Guadalajara	15	9	3	3	34	20	30
3	Atletico Morelia	15	8	2	5	26	19	26
4	Piratas	15	7	4	4	27	15	25
5	Cancun FC	15	7	4	4	28	18	25
6	Venados FC	15	7	4	4	31	25	25
7	Alacranes de Durango	15	7	3	5	21	15	24
8	Tlaxcala FC	15	6	4	5	29	27	22
9	Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15	25	22
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26	26	18
11	Tapatio	15	5	3	7	25	28	18
12	Correcaminos	15	4	5	6	21	24	17
13	Dorados	15	4	4	7	23	32	16
14	Jaiba Brava	15	4	3	8	15	25	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	15	3	5	7	17	24	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	15	2	1	12	11	44	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Morelia	Venados FC
Alacranes de Durango	1-3 L	3-2 W
Jaiba Brava	1-2 L	3-4 L
Tepatitlan FC	1-1 D	5-0 W
Tlaxcala FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Universidad Guadalajara	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Morelia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
26/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
18/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
10/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	11	7	D
04/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	11	8	D
27/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	12	5	L
20/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
13/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	10	W
06/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
29/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

Venados FC

LLWLWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
25/10	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	3-2	5	10	W
18/10	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
11/10	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
03/10	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
27/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
19/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	5-0	3	6	W
06/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	3-4	10	9	L
30/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	6	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Morelia vs Venados FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Morelia win (46%). Probabilities: Atletico Morelia 46%, draw 25%, Venados FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Morelia vs Venados FC?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Atletico Morelia 1.76 · Venados FC 1.36), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Morelia vs Venados FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.