Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 09/11, 02:00

Prediction: Piratas vs Cancun FC

Team pages: Piratas · Cancun FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Piratas1.82

Cancun FC1.02

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Piratas Draw Cancun FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Piratas 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLWWDD

Cancun FC 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDWLWDDWWD

Head-to-head

Piratas 0–1–1 Cancun FC (2 last)

Cancun FC1-1Piratas
Piratas0-1Cancun FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Piratas 1534 · Cancun FC 1552

	Piratas	Draw	Cancun FC
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Piratas	Cancun FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 6.8	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 1.2	5.2 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 9 moves · last 01:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.67▲	Bet365 1.67
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.05
2	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 5.17 ★

See the full journey (9)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:21 +3’	1.53	4.00	4.75
03:48 +17’	1.55▲	4.33▲	5.00▲
05:20 +1’	1.53▼	4.33	5.25▲
17:53 +1’	1.57▲	4.20▼	5.00▼
21:02 +1’	1.57	4.20	4.75▼
21:43 +19’	1.61▲	4.10▼	4.75
22:52 +9’	1.67▲	4.00▼	4.50▼
23:56 +4’	1.61▼	4.10▲	4.75▲
01:01	1.67▲	4.00▼	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:27 +61’	1.52	4.21	5.43
03:37 +65’	1.53▲	4.27▲	5.53▲
06:58 +37’	1.51▼	4.37▲	5.68▲
02:03 +23’	1.52▲	4.43▲	5.79▲
14:38 +19’	1.53▲	4.47▲	5.85▲
17:47 +8’	1.54▲	4.33▼	5.84▼
21:57 +4’	1.64▲	4.05▼	5.17▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Piratas 0–1–1 Cancun FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/11/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Piratas
23/08/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Piratas	0-1 HT 0-1	Cancun FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	15	9	3	3	36	18	30
2	Universidad Guadalajara	15	9	3	3	34	20	30
3	Atletico Morelia	15	8	2	5	26	19	26
4	Piratas	15	7	4	4	27	15	25
5	Cancun FC	15	7	4	4	28	18	25
6	Venados FC	15	7	4	4	31	25	25
7	Alacranes de Durango	15	7	3	5	21	15	24
8	Tlaxcala FC	15	6	4	5	29	27	22
9	Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15	25	22
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26	26	18
11	Tapatio	15	5	3	7	25	28	18
12	Correcaminos	15	4	5	6	21	24	17
13	Dorados	15	4	4	7	23	32	16
14	Jaiba Brava	15	4	3	8	15	25	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	15	3	5	7	17	24	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	15	2	1	12	11	44	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Piratas	Cancun FC
Tapatio	1-1 D	1-0 W
Dorados	5-0 W	1-1 D
Tepatitlan FC	3-0 W	4-0 W
Tlaxcala FC	2-4 L	1-4 L
Oaxaca	4-0 W	3-0 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	0-3 L	2-2 D
Venados FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Correcaminos	4-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Piratas (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Piratas

WDWLWLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	8	1	D
01/11	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
25/10	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	5-0	6	4	W
18/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-0	11	5	W
11/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-4	4	6	L
04/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	4-0	11	3	W
25/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-3	7	9	L
19/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
11/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
06/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	4-1	5	10	W

Cancun FC

DDWLWDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
01/11	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
24/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-0	2	7	W
18/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
11/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-2	6	6	D
04/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
27/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-4	6	6	L
20/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	2	8	W
16/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
12/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-2	4	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Piratas vs Cancun FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Piratas win (56%). Probabilities: Piratas 56%, draw 24%, Cancun FC 20%.

How many goals are expected in Piratas vs Cancun FC?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Piratas 1.82 · Cancun FC 1.02), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Piratas vs Cancun FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.