Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 14/11, 14:00

Prediction: NK Ormoz vs NK Smartno

Team pages: NK Ormoz · NK Smartno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.23Total

NK Ormoz2.56

NK Smartno1.67

1X2

56% 21% 23%

NK Ormoz Draw NK Smartno

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Ormoz 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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NK Smartno 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

NK Ormoz 1–0 NK Smartno (1 last)

NK Smartno2-4NK Ormoz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Ormoz 1544 · NK Smartno 1531

	NK Ormoz	Draw	NK Smartno
Our model	56%	20%	24%
Market	56%	21%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 4.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Ormoz	NK Smartno
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.5	2.7 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.8 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.20

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:47 +23’	1.61	4.20	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Ormoz 1–0–0 NK Smartno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	2-4	NK Ormoz

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	13	10	2	1	40	14	32
2	NK Ormoz	13	9	1	3	32	19	28
3	NK Fuzinar	13	8	1	4	40	25	25
4	NK Smartno	13	7	2	4	32	29	23
5	NK Podvinci	13	7	2	4	23	22	23
6	SD Videm	13	6	2	5	24	24	20
7	NK Race	13	4	6	3	13	11	18
8	NK Carda	13	5	3	5	27	26	18
9	NK Korotan Prevalje	13	4	5	4	21	20	17
10	NK Hajdina	13	4	4	5	19	24	16
11	NK Dobrovce	13	3	1	9	18	33	10
12	NK Ljutomer	13	2	3	8	14	25	9
13	NK Limbus Pekre	13	2	3	8	15	31	9
14	NK Sampion Celje	13	1	3	9	12	27	6
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Ormoz	NK Smartno
NK Hajdina	2-0 W	4-0 W
NK Sampion Celje	2-0 W	1-1 D
NK Odranci	0-3 L	0-6 L
NK Dobrovce	4-3 W	4-3 W
NK Fuzinar	3-4 L	1-5 L
NK Limbus Pekre	4-0 W	4-0 W
NK Ljutomer	1-1 D	2-1 W
NK Podvinci	0-2 L	8-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Ormoz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	4-1	1	10	W
31/10	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
28/10	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
17/10	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
10/10	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
03/10	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	4-3	8	3	W
26/09	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	1-2	3-4	1	9	L
19/09	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-0	–	–	W
12/09	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
05/09	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L

NK Smartno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-1	6	8	D
07/11	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	4-0	0	8	W
28/10	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-3	0-6	4	1	L
17/10	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	4-3	4	5	W
10/10	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
03/10	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-0	–	–	W
26/09	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	8-1	5	4	W
12/09	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	0-5	1-7	2	4	L
05/09	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Ormoz vs NK Smartno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Ormoz win (56%). Probabilities: NK Ormoz 56%, draw 21%, NK Smartno 23%.

How many goals are expected in NK Ormoz vs NK Smartno?

The model expects 4.23 goals (NK Ormoz 2.56 · NK Smartno 1.67), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Ormoz vs NK Smartno?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.