Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 28/10, 14:15

Prediction: NK Odranci vs NK Smartno

Team pages: NK Smartno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.21Total

NK Odranci2.49

NK Smartno1.71

1X2

54% 21% 25%

NK Odranci Draw NK Smartno

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Odranci 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWDWW

NK Smartno 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWWWLW

Head-to-head

NK Odranci 1–1 NK Smartno (2 last)

NK Odranci0-3NK Smartno
NK Smartno1-2NK Odranci

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Odranci 1630 · NK Smartno 1522

	NK Odranci	Draw	NK Smartno
Our model	54%	20%	25%
Market	54%	21%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 4.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Odranci (rating 1630 vs 1522).
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Odranci	NK Smartno
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.2	2.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	1 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	2.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7 / 0	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.20

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:51 +18’	1.67	4.20	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Odranci 1–0–1 NK Smartno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Odranci	0-3 HT 0-1	NK Smartno
10/06/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	1-2 HT 1-1	NK Odranci

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	10	8	2	0	30	12	26
2	NK Fuzinar	10	6	1	3	32	22	19
3	NK Ormoz	10	6	1	3	23	17	19
4	NK Smartno	10	6	1	3	27	22	19
5	NK Hajdina	10	4	4	2	18	15	16
6	NK Carda	10	4	3	3	23	18	15
7	SD Videm	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
8	NK Podvinci	10	4	2	4	15	19	14
9	NK Race	10	3	4	3	11	10	13
10	NK Korotan Prevalje	10	2	5	3	14	15	11
11	NK Dobrovce	10	3	0	7	15	27	9
12	NK Ljutomer	10	2	2	6	12	16	8
13	NK Limbus Pekre	10	2	2	6	10	23	8
14	NK Sampion Celje	10	1	1	8	11	23	4
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Odranci	NK Smartno
NK Korotan Prevalje	3-1 W	0-0 D
NK Ormoz	3-0 W	2-4 L
SD Videm	3-3 D	3-0 W
NK Dobrovce	3-1 W	4-3 W
NK Fuzinar	5-3 W	1-5 L
NK Limbus Pekre	2-1 W	4-0 W
NK Ljutomer	3-1 W	2-1 W
NK Podvinci	3-1 W	8-1 W
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Odranci (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Odranci

WWWWWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/10	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-0	–	–	W
03/10	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
27/09	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-1	–	–	W
20/09	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	3-3	7	4	D
12/09	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
06/09	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-3	–	–	W
29/08	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	3-1	4	12	W
15/08	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-1	5	7	W

NK Smartno

LDWWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	4-3	4	5	W
10/10	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
03/10	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-0	–	–	W
26/09	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	8-1	5	4	W
12/09	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	0-5	1-7	2	4	L
05/09	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
22/08	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Odranci vs NK Smartno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Odranci win (54%). Probabilities: NK Odranci 54%, draw 21%, NK Smartno 25%.

How many goals are expected in NK Odranci vs NK Smartno?

The model expects 4.21 goals (NK Odranci 2.49 · NK Smartno 1.71), with a 56% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Odranci vs NK Smartno?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.