Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 28/10, 18:00

Prediction: NK Dobrovce vs NK Race

Team pages: NK Dobrovce · NK Race

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

NK Dobrovce1.39

NK Race1.74

1X2

31% 24% 45%

NK Dobrovce Draw NK Race

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Dobrovce 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLLWL

NK Race 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLLDWWDW

Head-to-head

NK Dobrovce 2–3 NK Race (5 last)

NK Dobrovce1-5NK Race
NK Race5-1NK Dobrovce
NK Race4-1NK Dobrovce
NK Dobrovce2-1NK Race
NK Dobrovce3-0NK Race

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Dobrovce 1458 · NK Race 1553

	NK Dobrovce	Draw	NK Race
Our model	30%	25%	45%
Market	31%	23%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Race (rating 1458 vs 1553).
H2H favours NK Race: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Dobrovce	NK Race
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.7	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/14/43%	25/63/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 2.7	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.90

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +8’	2.88	3.90	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Dobrovce 2–0–3 NK Race

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Dobrovce	1-5	NK Race
20/09/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Race	5-1	NK Dobrovce
17/09/25 Slovenia Cup	NK Race	4-1 HT 1-1	NK Dobrovce
28/10/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Dobrovce	2-1 HT 0-0	NK Race
20/05/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Dobrovce	3-0 HT 1-0	NK Race

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	10	8	2	0	30	12	26
2	NK Fuzinar	10	6	1	3	32	22	19
3	NK Ormoz	10	6	1	3	23	17	19
4	NK Smartno	10	6	1	3	27	22	19
5	NK Hajdina	10	4	4	2	18	15	16
6	NK Carda	10	4	3	3	23	18	15
7	SD Videm	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
8	NK Podvinci	10	4	2	4	15	19	14
9	NK Race	10	3	4	3	11	10	13
10	NK Korotan Prevalje	10	2	5	3	14	15	11
11	NK Dobrovce	10	3	0	7	15	27	9
12	NK Ljutomer	10	2	2	6	12	16	8
13	NK Limbus Pekre	10	2	2	6	10	23	8
14	NK Sampion Celje	10	1	1	8	11	23	4
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Dobrovce	NK Race
NK Smartno	3-4 L	1-2 L
NK Korotan Prevalje	1-0 W	0-0 D
NK Ormoz	3-4 L	1-2 L
NK Hajdina	0-3 L	1-1 D
SD Videm	3-2 W	1-2 L
NK Fuzinar	1-5 L	1-0 W
NK Limbus Pekre	1-3 L	1-1 D
NK Ljutomer	0-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Race (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Dobrovce

LLLWLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	1-2	3-4	3	5	L
10/10	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
03/10	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	3-4	2	3	L
30/09	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
19/09	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
12/09	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-3	2	7	L
06/09	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-2	5	4	W
29/08	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L

NK Race

DLDLLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
10/10	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
03/10	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
26/09	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
19/09	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	2-2	3	7	D
11/09	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
05/09	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/08	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
22/08	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	7	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Dobrovce vs NK Race?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Race win (45%). Probabilities: NK Dobrovce 31%, draw 24%, NK Race 45%.

How many goals are expected in NK Dobrovce vs NK Race?

The model expects 3.13 goals (NK Dobrovce 1.39 · NK Race 1.74), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Dobrovce vs NK Race?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.