Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 25/07, 03:00

Prediction: Tepatitlan FC vs Alacranes de Durango

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Tepatitlan FC1.32

Alacranes de Durango0.97

1X2

44% 29% 27%

Tepatitlan FC Draw Alacranes de Durango

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tepatitlan FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDDDWWL

Alacranes de Durango 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDDWLD

Head-to-head

Tepatitlan FC 2–3–0 Alacranes de Durango (5 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tepatitlan FC 1528 · Alacranes de Durango 1532

	Tepatitlan FC	Draw	Alacranes de Durango
Our model	43%	30%	26%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tepatitlan FC: 2-3-0.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tepatitlan FC	Alacranes de Durango
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.8	1.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.5	3.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0.6	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.41
2	3.00 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.71 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:08 +2’	2.20	3.25	3.00
01:03 +4’	2.05▼	3.30▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:09	1.96	3.38	3.67
23:05 +1’	1.98▲	3.41▲	3.71▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tepatitlan FC 2–3–0 Alacranes de Durango

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/01/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Alacranes de Durango	0-2 HT 0-0	Tepatitlan FC
29/07/22 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Alacranes de Durango
23/02/20 Mexico Segunda Division	Tepatitlan FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Alacranes de Durango
28/09/19 Mexico Segunda Division	Alacranes de Durango	2-2 HT 2-2	Tepatitlan FC
23/02/19 Mexico Segunda Division	Tepatitlan FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Alacranes de Durango

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oaxaca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Morelia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cancun FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mineros de Zacatecas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tapatio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Correcaminos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club Atletico La Paz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dorados	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jaiba Brava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Universidad Guadalajara	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Piratas Veracruz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tepatitlan FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tlaxcala FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Venados FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tepatitlan FC

WDLWDDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
24/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	8	8	W
17/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
10/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
04/05	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
01/05	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	5	8	D
27/04	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	7	10	W
24/04	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
11/04	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
04/04	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	12	5	W

Alacranes de Durango

WDWWDDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
07/05	Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division	1-2	1-2	2	5	L
03/05	Halcones de Zapopan Mexico Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
29/04	Halcones de Zapopan Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
26/04	Zacatepec FC Mexico Segunda Division	0-1	1-1	11	7	D
22/04	Zacatepec FC Mexico Segunda Division	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
11/04	Mineros de Fresnillo Mexico Segunda Division	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
04/04	CF Reboceros La Piedad Mexico Segunda Division	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
28/03	Cimarrones de Sonora FC Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
21/03	Ensenada FC Mexico Segunda Division	3-0	6-0	9	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tepatitlan FC vs Alacranes de Durango?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tepatitlan FC win (44%). Probabilities: Tepatitlan FC 44%, draw 29%, Alacranes de Durango 27%.

How many goals are expected in Tepatitlan FC vs Alacranes de Durango?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Tepatitlan FC 1.32 · Alacranes de Durango 0.97), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tepatitlan FC vs Alacranes de Durango?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.