Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 02/08, 01:00
Prediction: Tapatio vs Jaiba Brava
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
Tapatio1.24
Jaiba Brava1.25
1X2
Tapatio
Draw
Jaiba Brava
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Tapatio
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Jaiba Brava
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tapatio
3–1–2
Jaiba Brava
(6 last)
- Tapatio3-1Jaiba Brava
- Jaiba Brava2-1Tapatio
- Jaiba Brava1-0Tapatio
- Tapatio2-0Jaiba Brava
- Tapatio2-1Jaiba Brava
- Jaiba Brava1-1Tapatio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tapatio 1457 · Jaiba Brava 1533
| Tapatio | Draw | Jaiba Brava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 30% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jaiba Brava (rating 1457 vs 1533).
- H2H favours Tapatio: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tapatio | Jaiba Brava | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.6 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.6 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.3 | 5.2 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tapatio 3–1–2 Jaiba Brava
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Jaiba Brava |
| 07/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Jaiba Brava | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Tapatio |
| 26/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Jaiba Brava | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tapatio |
| 10/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Jaiba Brava |
| 30/01/22 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Jaiba Brava |
| 25/08/21 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Jaiba Brava | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Tapatio |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venados FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Atletico Morelia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Universidad Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Alacranes de Durango | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 5 | Correcaminos | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 7 | Jaiba Brava | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Piratas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Cancun FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Tapatio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Dorados | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Tepatitlan FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Club Atletico La Paz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Oaxaca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tapatio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 08/04 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 30/03 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 23/03 | Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 14/03 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 07/03 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 9 | L |
Jaiba Brava
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 05/07 | Club America America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 17/05 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 04/05 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 01/05 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 23/04 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tapatio vs Jaiba Brava?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Jaiba Brava win (36%). Probabilities: Tapatio 35%, draw 29%, Jaiba Brava 36%.
How many goals are expected in Tapatio vs Jaiba Brava?
The model expects 2.49 goals (Tapatio 1.24 · Jaiba Brava 1.25), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Tapatio vs Jaiba Brava?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.