Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 02/08, 03:00

Prediction: Cancun FC vs Universidad Guadalajara

Team pages: Universidad Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Cancun FC1.53

Universidad Guadalajara1.03

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Cancun FC Draw Universidad Guadalajara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cancun FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Universidad Guadalajara 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLDLDWLLW

Head-to-head

Cancun FC 2–4 Universidad Guadalajara (6 last)

Universidad Guadalajara1-2Cancun FC
Cancun FC0-1Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara1-0Cancun FC
Cancun FC0-1Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara2-0Cancun FC
Cancun FC2-0Universidad Guadalajara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cancun FC 1518 · Universidad Guadalajara 1491

	Cancun FC	Draw	Universidad Guadalajara
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Universidad Guadalajara: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cancun FC	Universidad Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.58
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.12 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +2’	1.90	3.50	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:18	1.83	3.58	4.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cancun FC 2–0–4 Universidad Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	1-2 HT 0-1	Cancun FC
09/11/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Universidad Guadalajara
23/02/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	1-0 HT 0-0	Cancun FC
08/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Universidad Guadalajara
10/02/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-0 HT 2-0	Cancun FC
06/10/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Venados FC	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
2	Atletico Morelia	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
2	Universidad Guadalajara	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
4	Alacranes de Durango	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
5	Correcaminos	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
7	Tapatio	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
7	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
7	Jaiba Brava	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
7	Piratas	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Cancun FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Dorados	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Tepatitlan FC	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	Club Atletico La Paz	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
14	Tlaxcala FC	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
16	Oaxaca	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cancun FC	Universidad Guadalajara
Atlante	2-1 W	1-1 D
Tepatitlan FC	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cancun FC (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Cancun FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	Unam Pumas America Friendlies	0-1	0-3	2	6	L
04/07	Toluca America Friendlies	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
04/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	13	5	D
01/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-2	0	5	L
27/04	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
24/04	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
19/04	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
12/04	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
04/04	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-1	0	4	W
29/03	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	4	8	D

Universidad Guadalajara

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	4	5	W
19/04	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
12/04	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
05/04	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
28/03	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/03	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
15/03	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	4	8	D
05/03	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-3	3	3	L
01/03	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
15/02	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cancun FC vs Universidad Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cancun FC win (48%). Probabilities: Cancun FC 48%, draw 27%, Universidad Guadalajara 25%.

How many goals are expected in Cancun FC vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Cancun FC 1.53 · Universidad Guadalajara 1.03), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cancun FC vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.