Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 01/08, 03:00
Prediction: Correcaminos vs Tepatitlan FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.6Total
Correcaminos1.3
Tepatitlan FC1.3
1X2
Correcaminos
Draw
Tepatitlan FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Correcaminos
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Tepatitlan FC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Correcaminos
2–4
Tepatitlan FC
(6 last)
- Tepatitlan FC2-1Correcaminos
- Correcaminos1-4Tepatitlan FC
- Correcaminos2-1Tepatitlan FC
- Tepatitlan FC6-0Correcaminos
- Correcaminos2-0Tepatitlan FC
- Tepatitlan FC2-1Correcaminos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Correcaminos 1436 · Tepatitlan FC 1527
| Correcaminos | Draw | Tepatitlan FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tepatitlan FC (rating 1436 vs 1527).
- H2H favours Tepatitlan FC: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Correcaminos | Tepatitlan FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4 | 2.5 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.6 | 6.4 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Correcaminos 2–0–4 Tepatitlan FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tepatitlan FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Correcaminos |
| 30/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Correcaminos | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Tepatitlan FC |
| 07/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Correcaminos | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Tepatitlan FC |
| 21/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tepatitlan FC | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Correcaminos |
| 07/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Correcaminos | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Tepatitlan FC |
| 14/09/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tepatitlan FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Correcaminos |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venados FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Atletico Morelia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Universidad Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Alacranes de Durango | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 5 | Correcaminos | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 7 | Jaiba Brava | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Piratas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Cancun FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Tapatio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Dorados | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Tepatitlan FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Club Atletico La Paz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Oaxaca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Correcaminos | Tepatitlan FC |
|---|---|---|
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 3-3 D | 1-1 D |
| Jaiba Brava | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Correcaminos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Chivas Guadalajara America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 18/04 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 13/04 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/03 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 19/03 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 14/03 | Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 07/03 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 28/02 | Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
Tepatitlan FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 04/05 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 01/05 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 27/04 | Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 24/04 | Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Correcaminos vs Tepatitlan FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Correcaminos win (36%). Probabilities: Correcaminos 36%, draw 28%, Tepatitlan FC 36%.
How many goals are expected in Correcaminos vs Tepatitlan FC?
The model expects 2.6 goals (Correcaminos 1.3 · Tepatitlan FC 1.3), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Correcaminos vs Tepatitlan FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.