Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 01/08, 05:00
Prediction: Club Atletico La Paz vs Alacranes de Durango
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Club Atletico La Paz1.3
Alacranes de Durango1.29
1X2
Club Atletico La Paz
Draw
Alacranes de Durango
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Club Atletico La Paz
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Alacranes de Durango
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Club Atletico La Paz
1–1–0
Alacranes de Durango
(2 last)
- Club Atletico La Paz2-1Alacranes de Durango
- Alacranes de Durango0-0Club Atletico La Paz
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Club Atletico La Paz 1477 · Alacranes de Durango 1537
| Club Atletico La Paz | Draw | Alacranes de Durango | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alacranes de Durango (rating 1477 vs 1537).
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Atletico La Paz | Alacranes de Durango | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.8 | 3.7 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.8 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico La Paz 1–1–0 Alacranes de Durango
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Club Atletico La Paz | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Alacranes de Durango |
| 07/07/22 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Alacranes de Durango | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico La Paz |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venados FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Atletico Morelia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Universidad Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Alacranes de Durango | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 5 | Correcaminos | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 7 | Jaiba Brava | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Piratas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Cancun FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Tapatio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Dorados | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Tepatitlan FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Club Atletico La Paz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Oaxaca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Club Atletico La Paz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 23/04 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 28/03 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 21/03 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 15/03 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 08/03 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
Alacranes de Durango
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/05 | Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Halcones de Zapopan Mexico Segunda Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/04 | Halcones de Zapopan Mexico Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Zacatepec FC Mexico Segunda Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 22/04 | Zacatepec FC Mexico Segunda Division |
2-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Mineros de Fresnillo Mexico Segunda Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | CF Reboceros La Piedad Mexico Segunda Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Cimarrones de Sonora FC Mexico Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Club Atletico La Paz vs Alacranes de Durango?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Atletico La Paz win (36%). Probabilities: Club Atletico La Paz 36%, draw 28%, Alacranes de Durango 35%.
How many goals are expected in Club Atletico La Paz vs Alacranes de Durango?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Club Atletico La Paz 1.3 · Alacranes de Durango 1.29), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Club Atletico La Paz vs Alacranes de Durango?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.