Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 26/07, 00:00

Prediction: Tlaxcala FC vs Universidad Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Tlaxcala FC1.62

Universidad Guadalajara1.1

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Tlaxcala FC Draw Universidad Guadalajara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tlaxcala FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDDWLDD

Universidad Guadalajara 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLDLDWLL

Head-to-head

Tlaxcala FC 1–1–4 Universidad Guadalajara (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tlaxcala FC 1508 · Universidad Guadalajara 1451

	Tlaxcala FC	Draw	Universidad Guadalajara
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tlaxcala FC (rating 1508 vs 1451).
H2H favours Universidad Guadalajara: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tlaxcala FC	Universidad Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.05 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:10 +4’	1.90	3.50	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:13	1.86	3.50	4.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tlaxcala FC 1–1–4 Universidad Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	5-2 HT 4-1	Universidad Guadalajara
31/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-2 HT 1-0	Tlaxcala FC
02/02/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	5-1 HT 3-0	Tlaxcala FC
18/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Universidad Guadalajara
24/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	0-4 HT 0-1	Universidad Guadalajara
30/10/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-1 HT 2-1	Tlaxcala FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oaxaca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Morelia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cancun FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mineros de Zacatecas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tapatio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Correcaminos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club Atletico La Paz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dorados	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jaiba Brava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Universidad Guadalajara	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Piratas Veracruz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tepatitlan FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tlaxcala FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Venados FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tlaxcala FC	Universidad Guadalajara
Venados FC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Atletico Morelia	0-0 D	2-0 W
Dorados	2-0 W	1-1 D
Atlante	1-1 D	1-1 D
Club Atletico La Paz	0-2 L	0-3 L
Tepatitlan FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Oaxaca	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tlaxcala FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tlaxcala FC

WDWLDDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/04	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	8	4	D
12/04	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
08/04	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
04/04	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	2	0	W
23/03	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/03	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
08/03	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	1	6	L
01/03	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
14/02	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
08/02	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	4-1	5-2	3	5	W

Universidad Guadalajara

LDDLDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/04	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
12/04	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
05/04	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
28/03	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/03	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
15/03	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	4	8	D
05/03	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-3	3	3	L
01/03	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
15/02	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
08/02	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-4	2-5	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tlaxcala FC vs Universidad Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tlaxcala FC win (48%). Probabilities: Tlaxcala FC 48%, draw 27%, Universidad Guadalajara 25%.

How many goals are expected in Tlaxcala FC vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Tlaxcala FC 1.62 · Universidad Guadalajara 1.1), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tlaxcala FC vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.