Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 26/07, 01:00
Prediction: Venados FC vs Oaxaca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.88Total
Venados FC2.07
Oaxaca1.81
1X2
Venados FC
Draw
Oaxaca
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Venados FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Oaxaca
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Venados FC
3–1–2
Oaxaca
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Venados FC 1502 · Oaxaca 1464
| Venados FC | Draw | Oaxaca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 22% | 34% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Venados FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Venados FC | Oaxaca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.9 | 1.4 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.5 | 5.2 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Venados FC 3–1–2 Oaxaca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Venados FC | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Oaxaca |
| 31/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Oaxaca | 4-5 HT 2-2 | Venados FC |
| 22/02/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Venados FC | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Oaxaca |
| 09/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Oaxaca | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Venados FC |
| 13/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Venados FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Oaxaca |
| 06/09/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Oaxaca | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Venados FC |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alacranes de Durango | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Oaxaca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico Morelia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cancun FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tapatio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Correcaminos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Club Atletico La Paz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dorados | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Jaiba Brava | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Universidad Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Piratas Veracruz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tepatitlan FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tlaxcala FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Venados FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Venados FC | Oaxaca |
|---|---|---|
| Tlaxcala FC | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Universidad Guadalajara | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Jaiba Brava | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Atlante | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Tepatitlan FC | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Correcaminos | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Venados FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Venados FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 12/04 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 06/04 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 28/03 | Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 21/03 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 07/03 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/02 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 15/02 | Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 11/02 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 07/02 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 3-3 | 10 | 5 | D |
Oaxaca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 11/04 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 04/04 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 21/03 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/03 | Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion |
3-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 08/03 | Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 2-6 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 28/02 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 22/02 | Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 14/02 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Venados FC vs Oaxaca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Venados FC win (43%). Probabilities: Venados FC 43%, draw 25%, Oaxaca 33%.
How many goals are expected in Venados FC vs Oaxaca?
The model expects 3.88 goals (Venados FC 2.07 · Oaxaca 1.81), with a 61% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Venados FC vs Oaxaca?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.