Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 16/08, 03:00
Prediction: Cancun FC vs Alacranes de Durango
Team pages: Cancun FC · Alacranes de Durango
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
Cancun FC1.28
Alacranes de Durango0.95
1X2
Cancun FC
Draw
Alacranes de Durango
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cancun FC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Alacranes de Durango
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cancun FC
0–1–1
Alacranes de Durango
(2 last)
- Alacranes de Durango4-3Cancun FC
- Cancun FC0-0Alacranes de Durango
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cancun FC 1479 · Alacranes de Durango 1519
| Cancun FC | Draw | Alacranes de Durango | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 31% | 26% |
| Market | 44% | 29% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alacranes de Durango (rating 1479 vs 1519).
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cancun FC | Alacranes de Durango | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.1 | 3.1 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.5 | 3.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cancun FC 0–1–1 Alacranes de Durango
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Alacranes de Durango | 4-3 HT 3-1 | Cancun FC |
| 29/09/22 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Cancun FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Alacranes de Durango |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 8 |
| 2 | Correcaminos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| 3 | Piratas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Tapatio | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 6 | Club Atletico La Paz | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Atletico Morelia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Universidad Guadalajara | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Alacranes de Durango | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Oaxaca | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Dorados | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Jaiba Brava | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | Cancun FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 | Tlaxcala FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cancun FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 02/08 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 05/07 | Unam Pumas America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/07 | Toluca America Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 04/05 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 5 | D |
| 01/05 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 27/04 | Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/04 | Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
Alacranes de Durango
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/05 | Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Halcones de Zapopan Mexico Segunda Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/04 | Halcones de Zapopan Mexico Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Zacatepec FC Mexico Segunda Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 22/04 | Zacatepec FC Mexico Segunda Division |
2-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Mineros de Fresnillo Mexico Segunda Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cancun FC vs Alacranes de Durango?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cancun FC win (43%). Probabilities: Cancun FC 43%, draw 30%, Alacranes de Durango 27%.
How many goals are expected in Cancun FC vs Alacranes de Durango?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Cancun FC 1.28 · Alacranes de Durango 0.95), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cancun FC vs Alacranes de Durango?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.