Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 21/08, 03:00

Prediction: Tepatitlan FC vs Tlaxcala FC

Team pages: Tepatitlan FC · Tlaxcala FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Tepatitlan FC1.21

Tlaxcala FC1.02

1X2

39% 31% 29%

Tepatitlan FC Draw Tlaxcala FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tepatitlan FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDDWWLLLLL

Tlaxcala FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLDDLLLD

Head-to-head

Tepatitlan FC 1–3–2 Tlaxcala FC (6 last)

Tlaxcala FC1-0Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC1-2Tlaxcala FC
Tlaxcala FC2-2Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC0-0Tlaxcala FC
Tepatitlan FC1-1Tlaxcala FC
Tlaxcala FC0-1Tepatitlan FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tlaxcala FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tepatitlan FC	Tlaxcala FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	1.4 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.8	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.83

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:53

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.22 → 2.17▼	Pinn 2.17
X	3.20 → 3.27▲	Pinn 3.27
2	3.29 → 3.34▲	Pinn 3.34

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:08 +1’	2.22	3.20	3.29
16:51 +2’	2.17▼	3.27▲	3.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tepatitlan FC 1–3–2 Tlaxcala FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Tepatitlan FC
20/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Tlaxcala FC
26/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Tepatitlan FC
11/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Tlaxcala FC
05/04/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Tlaxcala FC
14/10/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Tepatitlan FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	4	3	0	1	10	5	9
2	Mineros de Zacatecas	4	2	2	0	13	7	8
3	Correcaminos	4	2	1	1	11	8	7
4	Piratas	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
5	Tapatio	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
6	Venados FC	4	2	1	1	8	8	7
7	Club Atletico La Paz	4	2	0	2	9	5	6
8	Universidad Guadalajara	3	2	0	1	7	5	6
9	Oaxaca	4	2	0	2	3	5	6
10	Alacranes de Durango	4	2	0	2	2	5	6
11	Dorados	3	1	2	0	6	4	5
12	Jaiba Brava	3	1	1	1	3	1	4
13	Cancun FC	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
14	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	4	0	2	2	2	6	2
15	Tlaxcala FC	4	0	1	3	5	11	1
16	Tepatitlan FC	4	0	0	4	1	10	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tepatitlan FC	Tlaxcala FC
Oaxaca	0-1 L	0-2 L
Jaiba Brava	0-2 L	0-0 D
Mineros de Zacatecas	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tepatitlan FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tepatitlan FC

DDDWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	0	7	L
08/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-5	6	7	L
01/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-3	6	5	L
25/07	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
31/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
24/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	8	8	W
17/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
10/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
04/05	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
01/05	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	5	8	D

Tlaxcala FC

DDWLDDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-2	1	5	D
07/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
01/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	4	7	L
26/07	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	4	5	L
19/04	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	8	4	D
12/04	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
08/04	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
04/04	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	2	0	W
23/03	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/03	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tepatitlan FC vs Tlaxcala FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tepatitlan FC win (39%). Probabilities: Tepatitlan FC 39%, draw 31%, Tlaxcala FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Tepatitlan FC vs Tlaxcala FC?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Tepatitlan FC 1.21 · Tlaxcala FC 1.02), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tepatitlan FC vs Tlaxcala FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.