Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 23/08, 03:00
Prediction: Alacranes de Durango vs Universidad Guadalajara
Team pages: Alacranes de Durango · Universidad Guadalajara
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Alacranes de Durango1.47
Universidad Guadalajara0.96
1X2
Alacranes de Durango
Draw
Universidad Guadalajara
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Alacranes de Durango
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Universidad Guadalajara
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alacranes de Durango
1–1
Universidad Guadalajara
(2 last)
- Universidad Guadalajara1-0Alacranes de Durango
- Alacranes de Durango1-0Universidad Guadalajara
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alacranes de Durango 1495 · Universidad Guadalajara 1507
| Alacranes de Durango | Draw | Universidad Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 29% | 23% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alacranes de Durango | Universidad Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 60/0/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.8 | 2.2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.4 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alacranes de Durango 1–0–1 Universidad Guadalajara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Universidad Guadalajara | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Alacranes de Durango |
| 18/08/22 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Alacranes de Durango | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Universidad Guadalajara |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Correcaminos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 10 |
| 2 | Venados FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| 3 | Universidad Guadalajara | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Atletico Morelia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 8 |
| 6 | Club Atletico La Paz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Piratas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Tapatio | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Oaxaca | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Alacranes de Durango | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Dorados | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| 12 | Jaiba Brava | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Cancun FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 15 | Tepatitlan FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| 16 | Tlaxcala FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alacranes de Durango
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/05 | Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Halcones de Zapopan Mexico Segunda Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/04 | Halcones de Zapopan Mexico Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Zacatepec FC Mexico Segunda Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 22/04 | Zacatepec FC Mexico Segunda Division |
2-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Universidad Guadalajara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 07/08 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 26/07 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 05/04 | Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 28/03 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/03 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 15/03 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alacranes de Durango vs Universidad Guadalajara?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alacranes de Durango win (48%). Probabilities: Alacranes de Durango 48%, draw 29%, Universidad Guadalajara 23%.
How many goals are expected in Alacranes de Durango vs Universidad Guadalajara?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Alacranes de Durango 1.47 · Universidad Guadalajara 0.96), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Alacranes de Durango vs Universidad Guadalajara?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.