Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 24/08, 01:00
Prediction: Tapatio vs Mineros de Zacatecas
Team pages: Tapatio · Mineros de Zacatecas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
Tapatio1.65
Mineros de Zacatecas1.34
1X2
Tapatio
Draw
Mineros de Zacatecas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Tapatio
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Mineros de Zacatecas
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tapatio
2–4
Mineros de Zacatecas
(6 last)
- Mineros de Zacatecas2-1Tapatio
- Tapatio2-3Mineros de Zacatecas
- Tapatio0-1Mineros de Zacatecas
- Mineros de Zacatecas3-1Tapatio
- Mineros de Zacatecas0-4Tapatio
- Tapatio1-0Mineros de Zacatecas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tapatio 1473 · Mineros de Zacatecas 1554
| Tapatio | Draw | Mineros de Zacatecas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mineros de Zacatecas (rating 1473 vs 1554).
- H2H favours Mineros de Zacatecas: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tapatio | Mineros de Zacatecas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 2.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5 | 1.2 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tapatio 2–0–4 Mineros de Zacatecas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Mineros de Zacatecas | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Tapatio |
| 20/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Mineros de Zacatecas |
| 23/02/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Mineros de Zacatecas |
| 07/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Mineros de Zacatecas | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Tapatio |
| 19/01/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Mineros de Zacatecas | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Tapatio |
| 08/09/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Mineros de Zacatecas |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Correcaminos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 10 |
| 2 | Venados FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| 3 | Universidad Guadalajara | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Atletico Morelia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 8 |
| 6 | Club Atletico La Paz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Piratas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Tapatio | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Oaxaca | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Alacranes de Durango | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Dorados | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| 12 | Jaiba Brava | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Cancun FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 15 | Tepatitlan FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| 16 | Tlaxcala FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tapatio | Mineros de Zacatecas |
|---|---|---|
| Correcaminos | 3-2 W | 3-3 D |
| Venados FC | 2-3 L | 5-1 W |
| Dorados | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Irapuato | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Tlaxcala FC | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Mineros de Zacatecas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tapatio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 27/07 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 08/04 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 30/03 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Mineros de Zacatecas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 07/08 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 25/07 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 01/05 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 26/04 | Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/04 | Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 13/04 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tapatio vs Mineros de Zacatecas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tapatio win (44%). Probabilities: Tapatio 44%, draw 26%, Mineros de Zacatecas 30%.
How many goals are expected in Tapatio vs Mineros de Zacatecas?
The model expects 3 goals (Tapatio 1.65 · Mineros de Zacatecas 1.34), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tapatio vs Mineros de Zacatecas?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.