Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 21/08, 03:00
Prediction: Atletico Morelia vs Correcaminos
Team pages: Atletico Morelia · Correcaminos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.22Total
Atletico Morelia2
Correcaminos1.22
1X2
Atletico Morelia
Draw
Correcaminos
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Morelia
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Correcaminos
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Morelia
3–1–2
Correcaminos
(6 last)
- Atletico Morelia3-0Correcaminos
- Correcaminos1-1Atletico Morelia
- Atletico Morelia3-2Correcaminos
- Correcaminos3-0Atletico Morelia
- Correcaminos3-1Atletico Morelia
- Atletico Morelia2-0Correcaminos
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Morelia (rating 1522 vs 1461).
- H2H favours Atletico Morelia: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Morelia | Correcaminos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.6 | 1.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.7 | 5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Morelia 3–1–2 Correcaminos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Atletico Morelia | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Correcaminos |
| 02/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Correcaminos | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Morelia |
| 30/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Atletico Morelia | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Correcaminos |
| 11/10/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Correcaminos | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico Morelia |
| 21/02/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Correcaminos | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Atletico Morelia |
| 14/08/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Atletico Morelia | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Correcaminos |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Morelia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 8 |
| 3 | Correcaminos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| 4 | Piratas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Tapatio | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 7 | Club Atletico La Paz | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Universidad Guadalajara | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Oaxaca | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Alacranes de Durango | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Dorados | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Jaiba Brava | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Cancun FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| 15 | Tlaxcala FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Morelia | Correcaminos |
|---|---|---|
| Cancun FC | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 2-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Jaiba Brava | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Universidad Guadalajara | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Morelia (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Morelia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 26/07 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 4-2 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 05/07 | Cruz Azul America Friendlies |
0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 23/04 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/04 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 05/04 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
Correcaminos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 25/07 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Chivas Guadalajara America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 18/04 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 13/04 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/03 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 19/03 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Morelia vs Correcaminos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Morelia win (54%). Probabilities: Atletico Morelia 54%, draw 24%, Correcaminos 22%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Morelia vs Correcaminos?
The model expects 3.22 goals (Atletico Morelia 2 · Correcaminos 1.22), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Morelia vs Correcaminos?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.