Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 07/09, 01:00

Prediction: Tapatio vs Universidad Guadalajara

Team pages: Tapatio · Universidad Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Tapatio1.57

Universidad Guadalajara1.26

1X2

43% 27% 29%

Tapatio Draw Universidad Guadalajara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tapatio 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWLWWD

Universidad Guadalajara 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Tapatio 3–1–2 Universidad Guadalajara (6 last)

Tapatio2-0Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara1-1Tapatio
Universidad Guadalajara1-2Tapatio
Tapatio1-0Universidad Guadalajara
Tapatio2-3Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara3-0Tapatio

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tapatio: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tapatio	Universidad Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.4	2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.83

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 21:01

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.19 → 2.23▲	Pinn 2.23
X	3.57 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.40
2	2.93 → 3.09▲	Pinn 3.09

See the full journey (5)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:31	2.19	3.57	2.93
11:40 +1’	2.21▲	3.62▲	2.96▲
14:42	2.18▼	3.61▼	3.02▲
17:58 +7’	2.17▼	3.63▲	3.03▲
21:01	2.23▲	3.40▼	3.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tapatio 3–1–2 Universidad Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	2-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara
23/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	1-1 HT 1-0	Tapatio
08/06/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	1-2 HT 0-0	Tapatio
01/06/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	1-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara
12/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	2-3 HT 2-1	Universidad Guadalajara
28/12/24 America Friendlies	Universidad Guadalajara	3-0 HT 1-0	Tapatio

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
2	Atletico Morelia	6	4	0	2	12	8	12
3	Mineros de Zacatecas	6	3	2	1	17	11	11
4	Correcaminos	6	3	2	1	14	9	11
5	Tapatio	6	3	2	1	11	8	11
6	Club Atletico La Paz	6	3	1	2	12	7	10
7	Venados FC	6	3	1	2	13	13	10
8	Piratas	6	2	2	2	5	4	8
9	Jaiba Brava	6	2	1	3	5	8	7
10	Oaxaca	6	2	1	3	5	8	7
11	Alacranes de Durango	6	2	1	3	3	7	7
12	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	6	1	3	2	9	7	6
13	Cancun FC	5	2	0	3	5	8	6
14	Dorados	5	1	2	2	8	9	5
15	Tlaxcala FC	6	1	1	4	10	15	4
16	Tepatitlan FC	6	1	0	5	4	18	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tapatio	Universidad Guadalajara
Oaxaca	1-1 D	1-1 D
Correcaminos	3-2 W	1-3 L
Venados FC	2-3 L	1-2 L
Jaiba Brava	1-0 W	4-0 W
Cancun FC	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Guadalajara (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tapatio

LLDLDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
24/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	3	7	W
15/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	3-2	7	5	W
09/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-3	3	5	L
02/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
27/07	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/04	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	11	5	L
24/04	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
18/04	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	9	8	L
12/04	Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	2	5	L

Universidad Guadalajara

DWLLWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
23/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	0	4	W
16/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-0	3	8	W
07/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-3	8	4	L
02/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	7	W
26/07	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	4	5	W
19/04	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
12/04	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
05/04	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
28/03	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tapatio vs Universidad Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tapatio win (43%). Probabilities: Tapatio 43%, draw 27%, Universidad Guadalajara 29%.

How many goals are expected in Tapatio vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Tapatio 1.57 · Universidad Guadalajara 1.26), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tapatio vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.