Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 13/09, 01:00
Prediction: Venados FC vs Tepatitlan FC
Team pages: Venados FC · Tepatitlan FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.6Total
Venados FC2.2
Tepatitlan FC1.39
1X2
Venados FC
Draw
Tepatitlan FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Venados FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Tepatitlan FC
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Venados FC
3–2–1
Tepatitlan FC
(6 last)
- Tepatitlan FC2-0Venados FC
- Venados FC1-0Tepatitlan FC
- Tepatitlan FC2-2Venados FC
- Venados FC1-1Tepatitlan FC
- Tepatitlan FC0-5Venados FC
- Venados FC5-1Tepatitlan FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Venados FC (rating 1502 vs 1436).
- H2H favours Venados FC: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Venados FC | Tepatitlan FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.1 | 0.9 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.2 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.6 | 2.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.4 | 6 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Venados FC 3–2–1 Tepatitlan FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tepatitlan FC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Venados FC |
| 11/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Venados FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tepatitlan FC |
| 11/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tepatitlan FC | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Venados FC |
| 27/07/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Venados FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Tepatitlan FC |
| 19/01/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tepatitlan FC | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Venados FC |
| 28/09/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Venados FC | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Tepatitlan FC |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Morelia | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | Club Atletico La Paz | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Universidad Guadalajara | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Piratas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 14 | 11 |
| 6 | Tapatio | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 11 |
| 7 | Correcaminos | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 11 |
| 8 | Venados FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | 10 |
| 9 | Jaiba Brava | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 10 |
| 10 | Cancun FC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| 11 | Dorados | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| 12 | Alacranes de Durango | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | Oaxaca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 7 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 6 |
| 15 | Tlaxcala FC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 5 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan FC | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Venados FC | Tepatitlan FC |
|---|---|---|
| Jaiba Brava | 3-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Tlaxcala FC | 1-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Dorados | 4-2 W | 1-4 L |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 1-1 D | 0-6 L |
| Oaxaca | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Venados FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Venados FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-3 | 3-4 | 10 | 9 | L |
| 30/08 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 21/08 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-2 | 4-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/07 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 12/04 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 06/04 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
Tepatitlan FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 29/08 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-6 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 14/08 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-5 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Venados FC vs Tepatitlan FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Venados FC win (55%). Probabilities: Venados FC 55%, draw 22%, Tepatitlan FC 23%.
How many goals are expected in Venados FC vs Tepatitlan FC?
The model expects 3.6 goals (Venados FC 2.2 · Tepatitlan FC 1.39), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Venados FC vs Tepatitlan FC?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.