Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 13/09, 20:00

Prediction: Universidad Guadalajara vs Club Atletico La Paz

Team pages: Universidad Guadalajara · Club Atletico La Paz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Universidad Guadalajara1.89

Club Atletico La Paz1.4

1X2

47% 25% 27%

Universidad Guadalajara Draw Club Atletico La Paz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Guadalajara 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWWDW

Club Atletico La Paz 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Universidad Guadalajara 2–1–3 Club Atletico La Paz (6 last)

Club Atletico La Paz3-0Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara2-3Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz3-1Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara3-0Club Atletico La Paz
Universidad Guadalajara3-1Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz1-1Universidad Guadalajara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad Guadalajara 1534 · Club Atletico La Paz 1527

	Universidad Guadalajara	Draw	Club Atletico La Paz
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Club Atletico La Paz: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Guadalajara	Club Atletico La Paz
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.5	1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	1.3 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	5.4 / 1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 22:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.04 ★
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.62
2	3.20 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:48 +1’	2.05	3.50	3.20
03:13 +9’	2.10▲	3.50	3.30▲
21:40 +10’	1.95▼	3.60▲	3.70▲
22:32 +17’	2.00▲	3.60	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:11 +15’	2.03	3.59	3.27
02:12 +18’	2.04▲	3.63▲	3.30▲
13:17 +14’	2.09▲	3.63	3.21▼
21:26 +24’	1.89▼	3.72▲	3.68▲
08:04 +39’	1.99▲	3.62▼	3.47▼
13:59 +359’	2.02▲	3.58▼	3.40▼
22:12 +37’	2.04▲	3.62▲	3.44▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Guadalajara 2–1–3 Club Atletico La Paz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	3-0 HT 0-0	Universidad Guadalajara
14/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-3 HT 1-2	Club Atletico La Paz
29/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	3-1 HT 0-0	Universidad Guadalajara
13/10/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	3-0 HT 0-0	Club Atletico La Paz
06/05/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	3-1 HT 0-0	Club Atletico La Paz
03/05/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	1-1 HT 0-1	Universidad Guadalajara

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	7	5	1	1	17	8	16
2	Atletico Morelia	7	5	0	2	16	9	15
3	Club Atletico La Paz	7	4	1	2	15	7	13
4	Piratas	8	3	3	2	10	6	12
5	Correcaminos	8	3	3	2	17	15	12
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	7	3	2	2	17	14	11
7	Tapatio	7	3	2	2	12	11	11
8	Cancun FC	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
9	Venados FC	7	3	1	3	16	17	10
10	Jaiba Brava	7	3	1	3	9	11	10
11	Oaxaca	8	3	1	4	7	12	10
12	Dorados	6	2	2	2	12	10	8
13	Alacranes de Durango	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
14	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	8	1	4	3	10	14	7
15	Tlaxcala FC	7	1	2	4	11	16	5
16	Tepatitlan FC	7	1	0	6	5	22	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Guadalajara	Club Atletico La Paz
Piratas	1-1 D	2-0 W
Alacranes de Durango	2-1 W	0-1 L
Jaiba Brava	4-0 W	1-2 L
Cancun FC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Atletico Morelia	2-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Guadalajara (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad Guadalajara

WLLWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
30/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
23/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	0	4	W
16/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-0	3	8	W
07/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-3	8	4	L
02/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	7	W
26/07	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	4	5	W
19/04	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
12/04	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
05/04	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	5	5	W

Club Atletico La Paz

DLLLLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
28/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-1	2	9	W
22/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
15/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	5	W
08/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	5-0	1	7	W
01/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
26/07	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-4	0	7	L
26/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	7	9	L
23/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
18/04	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Guadalajara vs Club Atletico La Paz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Guadalajara win (47%). Probabilities: Universidad Guadalajara 47%, draw 25%, Club Atletico La Paz 27%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Guadalajara vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Universidad Guadalajara 1.89 · Club Atletico La Paz 1.4), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Guadalajara vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.