Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 13/09, 00:00

Prediction: Tlaxcala FC vs Jaiba Brava

Team pages: Tlaxcala FC · Jaiba Brava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Tlaxcala FC1.27

Jaiba Brava1.21

1X2

37% 30% 34%

Tlaxcala FC Draw Jaiba Brava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tlaxcala FC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLDLWD

Jaiba Brava 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWLWLW

Head-to-head

Tlaxcala FC 3–3–0 Jaiba Brava (6 last)

Jaiba Brava0-0Tlaxcala FC
Tlaxcala FC1-1Jaiba Brava
Tlaxcala FC0-0Jaiba Brava
Jaiba Brava0-1Tlaxcala FC
Tlaxcala FC1-0Jaiba Brava
Jaiba Brava0-2Tlaxcala FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jaiba Brava (rating 1453 vs 1498).
H2H favours Tlaxcala FC: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tlaxcala FC	Jaiba Brava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.7	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.5	6.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.79

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:16

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.43 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.45
X	3.16 → 3.19▲	Pinn 3.19
2	2.87 → 2.90▲	Pinn 2.90

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:14 +47’	2.43	3.16	2.87
04:14 +63’	2.45▲	3.19▲	2.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tlaxcala FC 3–3–0 Jaiba Brava

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	0-0 HT 0-0	Tlaxcala FC
11/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Jaiba Brava
02/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Jaiba Brava
15/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	0-1 HT 0-1	Tlaxcala FC
13/04/22 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Jaiba Brava
15/09/21 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	0-2 HT 0-1	Tlaxcala FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	7	5	0	2	16	9	15
2	Club Atletico La Paz	7	4	1	2	15	7	13
3	Universidad Guadalajara	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
4	Piratas	7	3	2	2	9	5	11
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	7	3	2	2	17	14	11
6	Tapatio	6	3	2	1	11	8	11
7	Correcaminos	7	3	2	2	15	13	11
8	Venados FC	7	3	1	3	16	17	10
9	Jaiba Brava	7	3	1	3	9	11	10
10	Cancun FC	6	3	0	3	11	8	9
11	Dorados	6	2	2	2	12	10	8
12	Alacranes de Durango	7	2	2	3	4	8	8
13	Oaxaca	7	2	1	4	6	12	7
14	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	7	1	3	3	9	13	6
15	Tlaxcala FC	7	1	2	4	11	16	5
16	Tepatitlan FC	7	1	0	6	5	22	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tlaxcala FC	Jaiba Brava
Venados FC	3-1 W	4-3 W
Tepatitlan FC	2-3 L	2-0 W
Oaxaca	0-2 L	2-1 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	1-3 L	0-2 L
Universidad Guadalajara	2-4 L	0-4 L
Tapatio	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Jaiba Brava (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tlaxcala FC

LDDLLLDLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
30/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	10	W
21/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-3	3	6	L
16/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-2	1	5	D
07/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
01/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	4	7	L
26/07	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	4	5	L
19/04	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	8	4	D
12/04	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
08/04	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-3	4	4	L

Jaiba Brava

LLWDLWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-3	1	9	W
30/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
23/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
16/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	0-4	5	8	L
09/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
02/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
26/07	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
31/05	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
24/05	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	1	8	L
17/05	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	7	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tlaxcala FC vs Jaiba Brava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tlaxcala FC win (37%). Probabilities: Tlaxcala FC 37%, draw 30%, Jaiba Brava 34%.

How many goals are expected in Tlaxcala FC vs Jaiba Brava?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Tlaxcala FC 1.27 · Jaiba Brava 1.21), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tlaxcala FC vs Jaiba Brava?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.