Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 13/09, 03:00

Prediction: Mineros de Zacatecas vs Atletico Morelia

Team pages: Mineros de Zacatecas · Atletico Morelia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Mineros de Zacatecas1.75

Atletico Morelia1.41

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Mineros de Zacatecas Draw Atletico Morelia

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Mineros de Zacatecas 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDDWDWLWL

Atletico Morelia 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWLWW

Head-to-head

Mineros de Zacatecas 1–3–2 Atletico Morelia (6 last)

Atletico Morelia2-0Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas3-0Atletico Morelia
Mineros de Zacatecas1-1Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia3-0Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas1-1Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia0-0Mineros de Zacatecas

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Morelia: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mineros de Zacatecas	Atletico Morelia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.8	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.2	3.9 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.86

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.23 → 2.23	Pinn 2.23
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.25
2	3.22 → 3.22	Pinn 3.22

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:42 +522’	2.23	3.25	3.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mineros de Zacatecas 1–3–2 Atletico Morelia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-0 HT 1-0	Mineros de Zacatecas
23/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	3-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Morelia
07/02/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Morelia
31/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	3-0 HT 1-0	Mineros de Zacatecas
06/04/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Morelia
18/10/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	0-0 HT 0-0	Mineros de Zacatecas

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	7	5	0	2	16	9	15
2	Club Atletico La Paz	7	4	1	2	15	7	13
3	Universidad Guadalajara	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
4	Piratas	7	3	2	2	9	5	11
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	7	3	2	2	17	14	11
6	Tapatio	6	3	2	1	11	8	11
7	Correcaminos	7	3	2	2	15	13	11
8	Venados FC	7	3	1	3	16	17	10
9	Jaiba Brava	7	3	1	3	9	11	10
10	Cancun FC	6	3	0	3	11	8	9
11	Dorados	6	2	2	2	12	10	8
12	Alacranes de Durango	7	2	2	3	4	8	8
13	Oaxaca	7	2	1	4	6	12	7
14	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	7	1	3	3	9	13	6
15	Tlaxcala FC	7	1	2	4	11	16	5
16	Tepatitlan FC	7	1	0	6	5	22	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mineros de Zacatecas	Atletico Morelia
Club Atletico La Paz	0-3 L	4-2 W
Jaiba Brava	2-0 W	0-1 L
Dorados	2-2 D	1-0 W
Correcaminos	3-3 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mineros de Zacatecas

LDDDWDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
30/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
24/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	2	7	L
15/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	5-1	5	6	W
07/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	1	6	D
01/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
25/07	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-3	2	4	D
04/05	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
01/05	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	6	8	D
26/04	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	3	4	L

Atletico Morelia

LLWWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
29/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	16	7	L
15/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
09/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	4-1	10	6	W
02/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
26/07	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	4-2	0	7	W
26/04	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	12	4	W
23/04	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
20/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mineros de Zacatecas vs Atletico Morelia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mineros de Zacatecas win (45%). Probabilities: Mineros de Zacatecas 45%, draw 25%, Atletico Morelia 30%.

How many goals are expected in Mineros de Zacatecas vs Atletico Morelia?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Mineros de Zacatecas 1.75 · Atletico Morelia 1.41), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Mineros de Zacatecas vs Atletico Morelia?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.