Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 06/09, 03:00
Prediction: Atletico Morelia vs Oaxaca
Team pages: Atletico Morelia · Oaxaca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Atletico Morelia1.8
Oaxaca1.07
1X2
Atletico Morelia
Draw
Oaxaca
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Morelia
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Oaxaca
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Morelia
3–3–0
Oaxaca
(6 last)
- Oaxaca0-3Atletico Morelia
- Atletico Morelia3-1Oaxaca
- Atletico Morelia2-1Oaxaca
- Oaxaca1-1Atletico Morelia
- Oaxaca3-3Atletico Morelia
- Atletico Morelia0-0Oaxaca
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Morelia (rating 1519 vs 1465).
- H2H favours Atletico Morelia: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Morelia | Oaxaca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.5 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.7 | 5 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Morelia 3–3–0 Oaxaca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Oaxaca | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Atletico Morelia |
| 10/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Atletico Morelia | 3-1 HT 3-0 | Oaxaca |
| 09/02/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Atletico Morelia | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Oaxaca |
| 26/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Oaxaca | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Atletico Morelia |
| 14/04/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Oaxaca | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Atletico Morelia |
| 05/10/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Atletico Morelia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Oaxaca |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universidad Guadalajara | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Atletico Morelia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 3 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 11 |
| 4 | Correcaminos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 11 |
| 5 | Tapatio | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 11 |
| 6 | Club Atletico La Paz | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Venados FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 10 |
| 8 | Piratas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Jaiba Brava | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Oaxaca | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 |
| 11 | Alacranes de Durango | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 6 |
| 13 | Cancun FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| 14 | Dorados | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 |
| 15 | Tlaxcala FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 4 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Morelia | Oaxaca |
|---|---|---|
| Dorados | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Correcaminos | 1-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Jaiba Brava | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Tlaxcala FC | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Oaxaca (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Morelia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 16 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 26/07 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 4-2 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 26/04 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 23/04 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/04 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
Oaxaca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/08 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 07/08 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 31/07 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 11/04 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 04/04 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Morelia vs Oaxaca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Morelia win (53%). Probabilities: Atletico Morelia 53%, draw 25%, Oaxaca 21%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Morelia vs Oaxaca?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Atletico Morelia 1.8 · Oaxaca 1.07), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Morelia vs Oaxaca?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.