Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 19/09, 03:00

Prediction: Tepatitlan FC vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Team pages: Tepatitlan FC · Mineros de Zacatecas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Tepatitlan FC1.66

Mineros de Zacatecas1.75

1X2

36% 24% 40%

Tepatitlan FC Draw Mineros de Zacatecas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Tepatitlan FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLWLL

Mineros de Zacatecas 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDDWDWLWL

Head-to-head

Tepatitlan FC 2–4–0 Mineros de Zacatecas (6 last)

Tepatitlan FC1-1Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas1-1Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC4-0Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas3-3Tepatitlan FC
Mineros de Zacatecas1-2Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC1-1Mineros de Zacatecas

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mineros de Zacatecas (rating 1424 vs 1492).
H2H favours Tepatitlan FC: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tepatitlan FC	Mineros de Zacatecas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.5	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	1.3 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.6	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.84

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:34

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.59 → 2.61▲	Pinn 2.61
X	3.64 → 3.68▲	Pinn 3.68
2	2.41 → 2.43▲	Pinn 2.43

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:22 +17’	2.59	3.64	2.41
04:15 +19’	2.61▲	3.68▲	2.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tepatitlan FC 2–4–0 Mineros de Zacatecas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Mineros de Zacatecas
01/05/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	1-1 HT 1-0	Tepatitlan FC
09/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	4-0 HT 2-0	Mineros de Zacatecas
27/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	3-3 HT 1-1	Tepatitlan FC
20/04/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	1-2 HT 0-0	Tepatitlan FC
03/11/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Mineros de Zacatecas

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	7	5	1	1	17	8	16
2	Atletico Morelia	7	5	0	2	16	9	15
3	Club Atletico La Paz	7	4	1	2	15	7	13
4	Venados FC	8	4	1	3	21	17	13
5	Piratas	8	3	3	2	10	6	12
6	Correcaminos	8	3	3	2	17	15	12
7	Mineros de Zacatecas	7	3	2	2	17	14	11
8	Tapatio	7	3	2	2	12	11	11
9	Cancun FC	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
10	Jaiba Brava	8	3	1	4	10	14	10
11	Oaxaca	8	3	1	4	7	12	10
12	Dorados	6	2	2	2	12	10	8
13	Tlaxcala FC	8	2	2	4	14	17	8
14	Alacranes de Durango	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	8	1	4	3	10	14	7
16	Tepatitlan FC	8	1	0	7	5	27	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tepatitlan FC	Mineros de Zacatecas
Dorados	1-4 L	2-2 D
Tlaxcala FC	3-2 W	3-1 W
Club Atletico La Paz	0-5 L	0-3 L
Correcaminos	1-3 L	3-3 D
Jaiba Brava	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mineros de Zacatecas (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tepatitlan FC

WWLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-3	1-4	6	8	L
29/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-6	2	5	L
21/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-2	5	6	W
14/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	0	7	L
08/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-5	6	7	L
01/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-3	6	5	L
25/07	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
31/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
24/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	8	8	W
17/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	3	8	W

Mineros de Zacatecas

LDDDWDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
30/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
24/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	2	7	L
15/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	5-1	5	6	W
07/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	1	6	D
01/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
25/07	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-3	2	4	D
04/05	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
01/05	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	6	8	D
26/04	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tepatitlan FC vs Mineros de Zacatecas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mineros de Zacatecas win (40%). Probabilities: Tepatitlan FC 36%, draw 24%, Mineros de Zacatecas 40%.

How many goals are expected in Tepatitlan FC vs Mineros de Zacatecas?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Tepatitlan FC 1.66 · Mineros de Zacatecas 1.75), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tepatitlan FC vs Mineros de Zacatecas?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.