Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 21/09, 01:00
Prediction: Tapatio vs Tlaxcala FC
Team pages: Tapatio · Tlaxcala FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.24Total
Tapatio1.89
Tlaxcala FC1.35
1X2
Tapatio
Draw
Tlaxcala FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Tapatio
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Tlaxcala FC
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tapatio
5–1
Tlaxcala FC
(6 last)
- Tapatio3-0Tlaxcala FC
- Tlaxcala FC1-0Tapatio
- Tapatio1-0Tlaxcala FC
- Tlaxcala FC2-3Tapatio
- Tlaxcala FC0-3Tapatio
- Tapatio2-0Tlaxcala FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tapatio 1515 · Tlaxcala FC 1470
| Tapatio | Draw | Tlaxcala FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 24% | 26% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tapatio (rating 1515 vs 1470).
- H2H favours Tapatio: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tapatio | Tlaxcala FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.6 | 1.6 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.3 | 6.1 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tapatio 5–0–1 Tlaxcala FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Tlaxcala FC |
| 13/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tlaxcala FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tapatio |
| 09/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tlaxcala FC |
| 22/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tlaxcala FC | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Tapatio |
| 13/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tlaxcala FC | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Tapatio |
| 25/08/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Tlaxcala FC |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Morelia | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Club Atletico La Paz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Universidad Guadalajara | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 17 |
| 4 | Piratas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cancun FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 14 |
| 6 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 14 |
| 7 | Dorados | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 13 |
| 8 | Venados FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 13 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 18 | 12 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 11 | Alacranes de Durango | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 |
| 12 | Jaiba Brava | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 11 |
| 13 | Oaxaca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 10 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala FC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 8 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan FC | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tapatio | Tlaxcala FC |
|---|---|---|
| Dorados | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Universidad Guadalajara | 1-3 L | 2-4 L |
| Oaxaca | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 4-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Venados FC | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Jaiba Brava | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Tlaxcala FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tapatio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 07/09 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 24/08 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 27/07 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
Tlaxcala FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 30/08 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 21/08 | Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 16/08 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 07/08 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 26/07 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 12/04 | Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tapatio vs Tlaxcala FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tapatio win (49%). Probabilities: Tapatio 49%, draw 25%, Tlaxcala FC 26%.
How many goals are expected in Tapatio vs Tlaxcala FC?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Tapatio 1.89 · Tlaxcala FC 1.35), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tapatio vs Tlaxcala FC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.