Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 20/09, 03:00

Prediction: Cancun FC vs Oaxaca

Team pages: Cancun FC · Oaxaca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Cancun FC1.57

Oaxaca1.06

1X2

48% 28% 24%

Cancun FC Draw Oaxaca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cancun FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWLWDD

Oaxaca 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWLDLW

Head-to-head

Cancun FC 5–1–0 Oaxaca (6 last)

Cancun FC1-1Oaxaca
Oaxaca0-1Cancun FC
Cancun FC1-0Oaxaca
Oaxaca0-2Cancun FC
Cancun FC3-0Oaxaca
Oaxaca2-5Cancun FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cancun FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cancun FC	Oaxaca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	1.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.8	5.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.94

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:35

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.87 → 1.87	Pinn 1.87
X	3.63 → 3.63	Pinn 3.63
2	3.88 → 3.88	Pinn 3.88

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:16 +18’	1.87	3.63	3.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cancun FC 5–1–0 Oaxaca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Oaxaca
16/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Oaxaca	0-1 HT 0-1	Cancun FC
26/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Oaxaca
11/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Oaxaca	0-2 HT 0-0	Cancun FC
17/01/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Oaxaca
15/10/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Oaxaca	2-5 HT 0-2	Cancun FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	8	6	0	2	17	9	18
2	Universidad Guadalajara	8	5	2	1	19	10	17
3	Club Atletico La Paz	8	4	2	2	17	9	14
4	Venados FC	8	4	1	3	21	17	13
5	Dorados	8	3	3	2	16	12	12
6	Piratas	8	3	3	2	10	6	12
7	Correcaminos	8	3	3	2	17	15	12
8	Cancun FC	8	3	2	3	14	11	11
9	Mineros de Zacatecas	8	3	2	3	17	15	11
10	Tapatio	8	3	2	3	13	14	11
11	Jaiba Brava	8	3	1	4	10	14	10
12	Oaxaca	8	3	1	4	7	12	10
13	Tlaxcala FC	8	2	2	4	14	17	8
14	Alacranes de Durango	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	8	1	4	3	10	14	7
16	Tepatitlan FC	8	1	0	7	5	27	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cancun FC	Oaxaca
Dorados	1-1 D	0-2 L
Correcaminos	2-2 D	3-1 W
Alacranes de Durango	2-0 W	1-0 W
Atletico Morelia	1-4 L	1-4 L
Jaiba Brava	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cancun FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cancun FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
12/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
06/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	6-0	4	5	W
28/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
23/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
16/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
09/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-4	5	6	L
02/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-2	0	7	L
04/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	13	5	D
01/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-2	0	5	L

Oaxaca

LWLLWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
06/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
28/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
14/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
07/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	5	8	W
31/07	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-2	11	5	L
26/07	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
18/04	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	3-1	5	9	W
11/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-2	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cancun FC vs Oaxaca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cancun FC win (48%). Probabilities: Cancun FC 48%, draw 28%, Oaxaca 24%.

How many goals are expected in Cancun FC vs Oaxaca?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Cancun FC 1.57 · Oaxaca 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cancun FC vs Oaxaca?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.