Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 20/09, 03:00

Prediction: Atletico Morelia vs Universidad Guadalajara

Team pages: Atletico Morelia · Universidad Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Atletico Morelia1.77

Universidad Guadalajara1.55

1X2

42% 25% 33%

Atletico Morelia Draw Universidad Guadalajara

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Morelia 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLWWW

Universidad Guadalajara 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atletico Morelia 1–5 Universidad Guadalajara (6 last)

Universidad Guadalajara2-0Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia2-3Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara2-0Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia2-0Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara2-1Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia0-2Universidad Guadalajara

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Universidad Guadalajara: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Morelia	Universidad Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 7	2.1 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 1	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.96

Under 31.83

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.69 → 1.69	Pinn 1.69
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.40
2	5.36 → 5.36	Pinn 5.36

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:13 +188’	1.69	3.40	5.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Morelia 1–0–5 Universidad Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Morelia
27/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-3 HT 2-1	Universidad Guadalajara
11/05/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Morelia
04/05/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara
21/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Morelia
06/10/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	0-2 HT 0-1	Universidad Guadalajara

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	8	6	0	2	17	9	18
2	Universidad Guadalajara	7	5	1	1	17	8	16
3	Club Atletico La Paz	7	4	1	2	15	7	13
4	Venados FC	8	4	1	3	21	17	13
5	Piratas	8	3	3	2	10	6	12
6	Correcaminos	8	3	3	2	17	15	12
7	Dorados	7	3	2	2	15	11	11
8	Mineros de Zacatecas	8	3	2	3	17	15	11
9	Tapatio	8	3	2	3	13	14	11
10	Cancun FC	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
11	Jaiba Brava	8	3	1	4	10	14	10
12	Oaxaca	8	3	1	4	7	12	10
13	Tlaxcala FC	8	2	2	4	14	17	8
14	Alacranes de Durango	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	8	1	4	3	10	14	7
16	Tepatitlan FC	8	1	0	7	5	27	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Morelia	Universidad Guadalajara
Correcaminos	1-3 L	1-3 L
Cancun FC	4-1 W	2-0 W
Piratas	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Morelia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	10	W
06/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
29/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	16	7	L
15/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
09/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	4-1	10	6	W
02/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
26/07	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	4-2	0	7	W
26/04	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	12	4	W
23/04	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-3	3	5	L

Universidad Guadalajara

WLLWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
30/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
23/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	0	4	W
16/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-0	3	8	W
07/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-3	8	4	L
02/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	7	W
26/07	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	4	5	W
19/04	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
12/04	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
05/04	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Morelia vs Universidad Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Morelia win (42%). Probabilities: Atletico Morelia 42%, draw 25%, Universidad Guadalajara 33%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Morelia vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Atletico Morelia 1.77 · Universidad Guadalajara 1.55), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Morelia vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.