Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 25/09, 03:00

Prediction: Oaxaca vs Club Atletico La Paz

Team pages: Oaxaca · Club Atletico La Paz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Oaxaca1.37

Club Atletico La Paz1.58

1X2

32% 27% 41%

Oaxaca Draw Club Atletico La Paz

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Oaxaca 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWLDLW

Club Atletico La Paz 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDWWDW

Head-to-head

Oaxaca 0–2–4 Club Atletico La Paz (6 last)

Club Atletico La Paz4-0Oaxaca
Oaxaca1-1Club Atletico La Paz
Oaxaca2-2Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz2-1Oaxaca
Club Atletico La Paz3-2Oaxaca
Club Atletico La Paz2-1Oaxaca

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico La Paz (rating 1465 vs 1551).
H2H favours Club Atletico La Paz: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oaxaca	Club Atletico La Paz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.7	5.9 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.79

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:17

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.17 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.20
X	3.67 → 3.71▲	Pinn 3.71
2	2.04 → 2.06▲	Pinn 2.06

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +13’	3.17	3.67	2.04
04:14 +63’	3.20▲	3.71▲	2.06▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Oaxaca 0–2–4 Club Atletico La Paz

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	4-0 HT 3-0	Oaxaca
11/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Oaxaca	1-1 HT 1-1	Club Atletico La Paz
05/04/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Oaxaca	2-2 HT 1-0	Club Atletico La Paz
19/10/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	2-1 HT 0-1	Oaxaca
21/04/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	3-2 HT 0-2	Oaxaca
23/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	2-1 HT 0-0	Oaxaca

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	9	7	0	2	19	9	21
2	Club Atletico La Paz	9	5	2	2	20	10	17
3	Universidad Guadalajara	9	5	2	2	19	12	17
4	Piratas	9	4	3	2	12	7	15
5	Cancun FC	9	4	2	3	17	11	14
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	9	4	2	3	18	15	14
7	Dorados	9	3	4	2	17	13	13
8	Venados FC	9	4	1	4	22	19	13
9	Correcaminos	9	3	3	3	18	18	12
10	Tapatio	8	3	2	3	13	14	11
11	Alacranes de Durango	9	3	2	4	6	9	11
12	Jaiba Brava	9	3	2	4	11	15	11
13	Oaxaca	9	3	1	5	7	15	10
14	Tlaxcala FC	8	2	2	4	14	17	8
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	9	1	4	4	10	16	7
16	Tepatitlan FC	9	1	0	8	5	28	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oaxaca	Club Atletico La Paz
Alacranes de Durango	1-0 W	0-1 L
Atletico Morelia	1-4 L	2-4 L
Jaiba Brava	1-2 L	1-2 L
Tepatitlan FC	1-0 W	5-0 W
Correcaminos	3-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico La Paz (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oaxaca

LWLLWWLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
06/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
28/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
14/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
07/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	5	8	W
31/07	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-2	11	5	L
26/07	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
18/04	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	3-1	5	9	W
11/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-2	5	7	L

Club Atletico La Paz

LLLWWDWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	7	6	W
13/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-2	8	8	D
05/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
28/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-1	2	9	W
22/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
15/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	5	W
08/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	5-0	1	7	W
01/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
26/07	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-4	0	7	L
26/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	7	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oaxaca vs Club Atletico La Paz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Club Atletico La Paz win (41%). Probabilities: Oaxaca 32%, draw 27%, Club Atletico La Paz 41%.

How many goals are expected in Oaxaca vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Oaxaca 1.37 · Club Atletico La Paz 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Oaxaca vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.