Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 26/09, 03:00

Prediction: Correcaminos vs Jaiba Brava

Team pages: Correcaminos · Jaiba Brava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Correcaminos1.74

Jaiba Brava1.46

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Correcaminos Draw Jaiba Brava

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Correcaminos 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWDLDL

Jaiba Brava 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLWLWL

Head-to-head

Correcaminos 2–2–2 Jaiba Brava (6 last)

Jaiba Brava3-1Correcaminos
Correcaminos1-2Jaiba Brava
Correcaminos2-1Jaiba Brava
Jaiba Brava0-0Correcaminos
Correcaminos2-1Jaiba Brava
Jaiba Brava3-3Correcaminos

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Correcaminos	Jaiba Brava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.6	6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.91

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:20

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.33 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.35
X	3.58 → 3.62▲	Pinn 3.62
2	2.72 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.75

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:22 +6’	2.33	3.58	2.72
04:14 +66’	2.35▲	3.62▲	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Correcaminos 2–2–2 Jaiba Brava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	3-1 HT 1-1	Correcaminos
13/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Correcaminos	1-2 HT 0-1	Jaiba Brava
31/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Correcaminos	2-1 HT 1-1	Jaiba Brava
16/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	0-0 HT 0-0	Correcaminos
28/03/22 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Correcaminos	2-1 HT 0-0	Jaiba Brava
10/10/21 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Jaiba Brava	3-3 HT 1-0	Correcaminos

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	9	7	0	2	19	9	21
2	Club Atletico La Paz	9	5	2	2	20	10	17
3	Universidad Guadalajara	9	5	2	2	19	12	17
4	Piratas	9	4	3	2	12	7	15
5	Cancun FC	9	4	2	3	17	11	14
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	9	4	2	3	18	15	14
7	Dorados	9	3	4	2	17	13	13
8	Venados FC	9	4	1	4	22	19	13
9	Correcaminos	9	3	3	3	18	18	12
10	Tapatio	8	3	2	3	13	14	11
11	Alacranes de Durango	9	3	2	4	6	9	11
12	Jaiba Brava	9	3	2	4	11	15	11
13	Oaxaca	9	3	1	5	7	15	10
14	Tlaxcala FC	8	2	2	4	14	17	8
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	9	1	4	4	10	16	7
16	Tepatitlan FC	9	1	0	8	5	28	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Correcaminos	Jaiba Brava
Piratas	1-4 L	0-0 D
Tapatio	2-3 L	0-1 L
Universidad Guadalajara	3-1 W	0-4 L
Tepatitlan FC	3-1 W	2-0 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	3-3 D	0-2 L
Oaxaca	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Correcaminos

LDWWLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
12/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-2	7	9	D
06/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-4	3	10	L
29/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
21/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	5	7	W
15/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-3	9	5	L
07/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	3-1	0	4	W
01/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	3-1	9	5	W
25/07	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-3	6	4	D
18/04	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-3	4	9	L

Jaiba Brava

LWDLWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	7	7	L
06/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-3	1	9	W
30/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
23/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
16/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	0-4	5	8	L
09/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
02/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
26/07	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
31/05	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
24/05	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	1	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Correcaminos vs Jaiba Brava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Correcaminos win (43%). Probabilities: Correcaminos 43%, draw 25%, Jaiba Brava 32%.

How many goals are expected in Correcaminos vs Jaiba Brava?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Correcaminos 1.74 · Jaiba Brava 1.46), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Correcaminos vs Jaiba Brava?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.