Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 27/09, 01:00

Prediction: Venados FC vs Atletico Morelia

Team pages: Venados FC · Atletico Morelia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Venados FC1.62

Atletico Morelia1.82

1X2

34% 24% 42%

Venados FC Draw Atletico Morelia

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Venados FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWLLWL

Atletico Morelia 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Venados FC 2–2–2 Atletico Morelia (6 last)

Atletico Morelia2-1Venados FC
Venados FC2-2Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia1-0Venados FC
Venados FC2-1Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia3-4Venados FC
Atletico Morelia1-1Venados FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Morelia (rating 1490 vs 1576).
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Venados FC	Atletico Morelia
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.1	2.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.2	3.9 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.4	5.1 / 1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.86

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:33

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.53 → 2.56▲	Pinn 2.56
X	3.59 → 3.63▲	Pinn 3.63
2	2.48 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.50

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +30’	2.53	3.59	2.48
04:13 +79’	2.56▲	3.63▲	2.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Venados FC 2–2–2 Atletico Morelia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-1 HT 1-0	Venados FC
05/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Morelia
03/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	1-0 HT 0-0	Venados FC
14/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Morelia
29/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	3-4 HT 2-1	Venados FC
10/11/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	1-1 HT 0-0	Venados FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	9	7	0	2	19	9	21
2	Club Atletico La Paz	9	5	2	2	20	10	17
3	Universidad Guadalajara	9	5	2	2	19	12	17
4	Piratas	9	4	3	2	12	7	15
5	Cancun FC	9	4	2	3	17	11	14
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	9	4	2	3	18	15	14
7	Dorados	9	3	4	2	17	13	13
8	Venados FC	9	4	1	4	22	19	13
9	Correcaminos	9	3	3	3	18	18	12
10	Tapatio	8	3	2	3	13	14	11
11	Alacranes de Durango	9	3	2	4	6	9	11
12	Jaiba Brava	9	3	2	4	11	15	11
13	Oaxaca	9	3	1	5	7	15	10
14	Tlaxcala FC	8	2	2	4	14	17	8
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	9	1	4	4	10	16	7
16	Tepatitlan FC	9	1	0	8	5	28	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Venados FC	Atletico Morelia
Piratas	1-2 L	0-1 L
Dorados	4-2 W	1-0 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	1-5 L	1-0 W
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1-1 D	2-1 W
Oaxaca	3-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Morelia (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Venados FC

DWDWLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	5-0	3	6	W
06/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	3-4	10	9	L
30/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	6	10	L
21/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	4-2	6	2	W
15/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-5	3	6	L
09/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-2	8	5	W
01/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
26/07	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	12	1	W
19/04	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-2	4	4	D

Atletico Morelia

WWLWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
13/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	10	W
06/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
29/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	16	7	L
15/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
09/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	4-1	10	6	W
02/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
26/07	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	4-2	0	7	W
26/04	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	12	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Venados FC vs Atletico Morelia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Morelia win (42%). Probabilities: Venados FC 34%, draw 24%, Atletico Morelia 42%.

How many goals are expected in Venados FC vs Atletico Morelia?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Venados FC 1.62 · Atletico Morelia 1.82), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Venados FC vs Atletico Morelia?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.