Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 04/10, 03:00

Prediction: Cancun FC vs Tapatio

Team pages: Cancun FC · Tapatio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Cancun FC1.8

Tapatio1.15

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Cancun FC Draw Tapatio

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Cancun FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWDDWL

Tapatio 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWDLLW

Head-to-head

Cancun FC 3–1–2 Tapatio (6 last)

Cancun FC1-0Tapatio
Tapatio1-1Cancun FC
Tapatio1-2Cancun FC
Cancun FC1-0Tapatio
Cancun FC1-2Tapatio
Tapatio2-0Cancun FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cancun FC 1524 · Tapatio 1507

	Cancun FC	Draw	Tapatio
Our model	51%	25%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cancun FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cancun FC	Tapatio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 1	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.97
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.77 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +1’	1.80	3.60	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +505’	1.64	3.97	4.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cancun FC 3–1–2 Tapatio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Tapatio
24/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	1-1 HT 0-0	Cancun FC
07/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	1-2 HT 0-2	Cancun FC
28/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Tapatio
06/04/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Tapatio
20/10/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	2-0 HT 2-0	Cancun FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	10	7	0	3	20	11	21
2	Club Atletico La Paz	10	6	2	2	23	11	20
3	Universidad Guadalajara	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Mineros de Zacatecas	10	5	2	3	21	15	17
5	Venados FC	10	5	1	4	24	20	16
6	Piratas	10	4	3	3	12	10	15
7	Correcaminos	10	4	3	3	19	18	15
8	Cancun FC	10	4	2	4	18	15	14
9	Tapatio	9	4	2	3	17	14	14
10	Alacranes de Durango	10	4	2	4	7	9	14
11	Dorados	10	3	4	3	17	14	13
12	Tlaxcala FC	10	3	2	5	18	22	11
13	Jaiba Brava	10	3	2	5	11	16	11
14	Oaxaca	10	3	1	6	8	18	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	10	1	4	5	11	18	7
16	Tepatitlan FC	9	1	0	8	5	28	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cancun FC	Tapatio
Tlaxcala FC	1-4 L	4-0 W
Oaxaca	3-0 W	1-1 D
Dorados	1-1 D	1-3 L
Correcaminos	2-2 D	3-2 W
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	6-0 W	0-0 D
Universidad Guadalajara	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cancun FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cancun FC

LLWWLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-4	6	6	L
20/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	2	8	W
16/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
12/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
06/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	6-0	4	5	W
28/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
23/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
16/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
09/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-4	5	6	L
02/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-2	0	7	L

Tapatio

LDWLWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	4-0	5	4	W
13/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	2	8	L
07/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
28/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
24/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	3	7	W
15/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	3-2	7	5	W
09/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-3	3	5	L
02/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
27/07	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/04	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	11	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cancun FC vs Tapatio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cancun FC win (51%). Probabilities: Cancun FC 51%, draw 26%, Tapatio 23%.

How many goals are expected in Cancun FC vs Tapatio?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Cancun FC 1.8 · Tapatio 1.15), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cancun FC vs Tapatio?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.