Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 04/10, 03:00

Prediction: Atletico Morelia vs Tlaxcala FC

Team pages: Atletico Morelia · Tlaxcala FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Atletico Morelia2.12

Tlaxcala FC1.08

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Atletico Morelia Draw Tlaxcala FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Morelia 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWWWL

Tlaxcala FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWDWLW

Head-to-head

Atletico Morelia 4–2–0 Tlaxcala FC (6 last)

Atletico Morelia0-0Tlaxcala FC
Tlaxcala FC0-1Atletico Morelia
Tlaxcala FC1-1Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia2-1Tlaxcala FC
Atletico Morelia3-1Tlaxcala FC
Tlaxcala FC2-3Atletico Morelia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Morelia 1560 · Tlaxcala FC 1472

	Atletico Morelia	Draw	Tlaxcala FC
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Morelia (rating 1560 vs 1472).
H2H favours Atletico Morelia: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Morelia	Tlaxcala FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	1.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.8	1.2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 1	6 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.10

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.35 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.49

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +1’	1.53	4.10	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +505’	1.51	4.35	5.49

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Morelia 4–2–0 Tlaxcala FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	0-0 HT 0-0	Tlaxcala FC
02/11/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Morelia
20/04/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Morelia
01/11/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-1 HT 1-0	Tlaxcala FC
09/02/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	3-1 HT 2-1	Tlaxcala FC
21/09/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	2-3 HT 0-2	Atletico Morelia

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	10	7	0	3	20	11	21
2	Club Atletico La Paz	10	6	2	2	23	11	20
3	Universidad Guadalajara	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Mineros de Zacatecas	10	5	2	3	21	15	17
5	Venados FC	10	5	1	4	24	20	16
6	Piratas	10	4	3	3	12	10	15
7	Correcaminos	10	4	3	3	19	18	15
8	Cancun FC	10	4	2	4	18	15	14
9	Tapatio	9	4	2	3	17	14	14
10	Alacranes de Durango	10	4	2	4	7	9	14
11	Dorados	10	3	4	3	17	14	13
12	Tlaxcala FC	10	3	2	5	18	22	11
13	Jaiba Brava	10	3	2	5	11	16	11
14	Oaxaca	10	3	1	6	8	18	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	10	1	4	5	11	18	7
16	Tepatitlan FC	9	1	0	8	5	28	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Morelia	Tlaxcala FC
Venados FC	1-2 L	3-1 W
Universidad Guadalajara	2-0 W	2-4 L
Mineros de Zacatecas	1-0 W	1-3 L
Oaxaca	4-1 W	0-2 L
Dorados	1-0 W	2-2 D
Cancun FC	4-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Morelia (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Morelia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	12	5	L
20/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
13/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	10	W
06/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
29/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	16	7	L
15/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
09/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	4-1	10	6	W
02/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
26/07	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	4-2	0	7	W

Tlaxcala FC

LLLDLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	4-1	1	6	W
21/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-4	8	4	L
13/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	5	7	W
05/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
30/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	10	W
21/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-3	3	6	L
16/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-2	1	5	D
07/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
01/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	4	7	L
26/07	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Morelia vs Tlaxcala FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Morelia win (60%). Probabilities: Atletico Morelia 60%, draw 22%, Tlaxcala FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Morelia vs Tlaxcala FC?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Atletico Morelia 2.12 · Tlaxcala FC 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Morelia vs Tlaxcala FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.